The size of the COVID-19 vaccine market across the seven major markets (7MM*) will increase from $13.6bn in 2021 to $19.5bn in 2026 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6% should annual vaccination be required, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. COVID-19 vaccines based on mRNA technology dominate the 7MM in 2021 with a market share of 95.4% and $9.5bn in sales for Pfizer/BioNTech and $3.5bn for Moderna.

GlobalData’s latest report, ‘Opportunity Assessment and Forecast to 2026’, models three different scenarios for the use of COVID-19 vaccines, since it is unclear how long protection from the current vaccines will last. In the first scenario, COVID-19 vaccines will be required annually; in the second scenario, annual vaccination will be assumed for the high-risk population of people 65 years of age and older, while everyone below 65 years of age will need a vaccine only every two years. In the third scenario, the high-risk population of people 65 years of age and older will receive a COVID-19 vaccine every two years, while everyone below 65 years will need a vaccine only every five years.

Philipp Rosenbaum, PhD, Senior Pharma Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “In the latter two scenarios, market sales will fluctuate significantly over the forecast period to 2026, since most people in the 7MM will receive a vaccine in 2021.”

Rosenbaum continues: “The launch of a nanoparticle vaccine from Novavax and a recombinant protein vaccine from Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline will decrease the market share of mRNA vaccines from 95.4% to 85% by 2026, but vaccines from Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna will remain dominant. The market share of adenovirus vector-based vaccines from AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson is suspected to decrease from 3.2% in 2021 to 2.1% in 2026 due to their lower efficacy and lack of contract renewal in Europe. Barriers of growth will be low vaccination rates due to vaccine hesitancy and scepticism, which could be enhanced if more adverse events will be observed with COVID-19 vaccines.”

Key Opinion Leaders (KOL) interviewed by GlobalData for this report agreed that it will not be possible to know how long the protection from COVID-19 vaccines will last until the data comes in, but emphasized that SARS-CoV-2 variants might make booster doses necessary. While some KOLs assume that protection will last for several years, others think that annual vaccination with COVID-19 vaccines will be necessary, similar to immunization against seasonal influenza.

*7MM = The US, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the UK, and Japan

*5EU = Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the UK