The diagnosed prevalent cases of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) in the seven major markets (*7MM) are projected to increase from 199,146 in 2024 to 230,591 in 2034 at an annual growth rate (AGR) of 1.58%, forecasts GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s latest report, “Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) – Epidemiology Forecast to 2034,” reveals that in 2034, the US is forecasted to experience the greatest number of diagnosed prevalent cases of IPF among the 7MM, totalling 134,778 cases, while the UK is projected to have the lowest count at 11,730 cases.

IPF, a type of interstitial lung disease (ILD), is a serious chronic condition that affects the tissue surrounding the air sacs, or alveoli, in the lungs. Environmental factors such as smoking, chronic aspiration, or respiratory infections, combined with advancing age, are the likely driving factors for the pathogenesis of IPF by causing respiratory alveolar epithelial injury.

The development of the disease involves a complex interplay of genetic and immunological factors. The long-term prognosis for IPF is poor. Given that IPF tends to progress rapidly in advanced stages, early diagnosis plays a pivotal role in effective management.

Bharti Prabhakar, MPH, Associate Project Manager, Epidemiology at GlobalData, comments: “IPF has a poor prognosis, with a median survival of three to five years, and can be very debilitating if left undiagnosed and untreated. In addition to accurately diagnosing and treating IPF, understanding the risk factors and comorbidities of the disease can help to improve the quality of life of a person with the disease.”

Despite a limited understanding of the etiology of IPF, studies have evaluated several potential risk factors and comorbidities, identifying multiple genetic and environmental factors that contribute to its pathogenesis. The possible risk factors for IPF include age, sex, cigarette smoking, environmental exposures, infectious agents, gastro-esophageal reflux, and family history.

There is currently no cure for IPF. However, certain medicines may slow the progression of IPF, which may extend the lifespan and improve the quality of life for people who have the disease.

GlobalData’s analysis shows that over 78% of prevalent cases of IPF in the 7MM occurred in adults aged 60 years and older. This suggests that the risk of IPF in individuals increases with increasing age and is more common in older adults. IPF occurs more frequently in men as compared to women. These findings are in line with studies that reported the prevalence of IPF.

While the evidence-based guidelines provide criteria for identifying usual interstitial pneumonia patterns and stipulate that the diagnosis of IPF requires careful evaluation for alternative causes, there are no standardized and validated questionnaires that can be utilized to ascertain the exclusion of all factors known to cause pulmonary fibrosis. Furthermore, with the increasing aging population worldwide, the number of prevalent cases of IPF is expected to rise soon, which will burden already strained healthcare systems.

Prabhakar concludes: “Given the peculiarities of IPF, such as its unpreventable nature and its varying natural history with age and sex, it is imperative for researchers to gain a better understanding of the etiology of IPF, which will provide insight into disease prevention.”

*7MM: The US, 5EU (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK), and Japan.