The diagnosed prevalent cases of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in the seven major markets (7MM*) are set to increase at an annual growth rate (AGR) of 1.17% from over 575,000 in 2024 to 640,000 in 2034, forecasts GlobalData, a leading intelligence and productivity platform.

GlobalData’s latest report, “Systemic Lupus Erythematosus and Lupus Nephritis: Epidemiology Forecast to 2034,” reveals that the diagnosed prevalent cases of lupus nephritis (LN) are projected to increase at an AGR of 0.71% from 172,000 in 2024 to 185,000 in 2034.

The US will have the highest number of diagnosed prevalent cases of SLE in the 7MM, with approximately 250,000, whereas Spain will have the fewest diagnosed prevalent cases with approximately 34,000 in 2034.

This distribution is the same for the diagnosed prevalent cases of LN, where the US will also have the highest number of diagnosed prevalent cases of LN in the 7MM, with approximately 56,000, while Spain will have the fewest diagnosed prevalent cases at approximately 11,000.

In 2024, the US accounted for approximately 43% of all diagnosed prevalent cases of SLE in the 7MM due to its large population. In the 5EU, France accounted for the highest number of diagnosed prevalent cases of SLE, with approximately 55,000, and 21% of all 5EU diagnosed prevalent cases of SLE.

In the 7MM, approximately 43% of diagnosed prevalent cases of SLE were diagnosed with complicated (moderate to severe) SLE, and approximately 56% of LN cases were diagnosed as class IV or V severity compared to the 11% of cases diagnosed as class I or II severity.

Ana Fernandez Menjivar, Managing Epidemiologist at GlobalData, says: “Due to a lack of definite clinical symptoms, SLE and LN are difficult to diagnose at earlier stages. A delay in diagnosis creates a significant burden on healthcare systems, as the advanced cases of LN can lead to ESRD, ultimately leading to dialysis and kidney transplantations.”

According to the report, a greater proportion of the diagnosed prevalent cases of SLE in the 7MM were of complicated severity, and among LN cases, the majority presented as class IV and V severity.

Fernandez Menjivar concludes: “Bridging this gap will require greater clinical vigilance, improved use of biomarkers, and broader access to specialist care to enable earlier intervention. From a healthcare and industry perspective, prioritizing early diagnosis pathways and disease-modifying therapies could meaningfully reduce progression to end-stage renal disease, alleviate long-term system costs, and significantly improve patient outcomes over the next decade.”

*7MM: The US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, and Japan.

**5EU: France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK.