The popularity of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor (GLP-1R) drugs has exploded in recent years due to their abilities in effectively treating metabolic-related disorders such as obesity and type 2 diabetes. As obesity rates rise and trust in GLP-1R products grows, sales for drugs targeting this receptor are forecast to increase fourfold to an estimated $142 billion by 2030. Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are poised to dominate the market, collectively capturing 94% of the total 2030 GLP-1R sales, which places them far ahead of any and all competitors in this category, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

According to GlobalData, the 11 approved drugs in the GLP-1R category generated $37.2 billion in 2023, cementing their place as one of the most lucrative therapies.

Jasper Morley, Pharma Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly accounted for nine of the approved GLP-1R products in 2023 and encompassed 99% of the sales. Successful GLP-1R products in 2023 included Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy, which generated $13.9 billion and $4.6 billion, respectively, as well as Eli Lilly’s Trulicity and Mounjaro, which generated $7.1 billion and $5.1 billion.”

Over the next seven years, the GLP-1R market is expected to expand to 35 approved products from 16 companies. Notably, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are predicted to account for 57% of these products on the market.

Morley adds: “Despite vast increases in the number of products and competitors expected to enter the GLP-1R market, sales attributed to the 14 companies other than Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are forecast to generate only $8.8 billion in 2030, 15 times less than the combined valuation of the two leading companies.”

Amgen, the company ranked third in terms of GLP-1R sales in 2030, is forecast to generate only $3 billion, driven entirely by the product maridebart cafraglutide, which is currently in Phase II for type 2 diabetes and obesity.

Morley concludes: “By 2030, Eli Lilly is expected to overtake Novo Nordisk to become the leading company in terms of GLP-1R sales, with $67.7 billion. Eli Lilly is estimated to market the two top-selling GLP-1R products in 2030, with Mounjaro forecast to generate $27.4 billion and Zepbound forecast to generate $27.3 billion. Novo Nordisk follows closely behind, with Ozempic generating $22.4 billion of the company’s $65 billion portfolio. Combined, the GLP-1R portfolios for these companies are forecast to generate $133 billion in 2030.”