Novo Nordisk likely to maintain lead against competitor Eli Lilly in global T2D market, says GlobalData

Despite plagued with supply issues over the past one year, Novo Nordisk’s glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) franchise—including Rybelsus, Saxenda, Ozempic, and Wegovy—enjoyed a strong performance. Against this backdrop, the Denmark-based pharmaceutical company is poised to maintain a strong market position against competitor Eli Lilly in the type 2 diabetes (T2D) market, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

Reportedly, Ozempic has been plagued by a shortage fueled by demand and Wegovy has had contract-manufacturing-related supply chain issues, but that has not prevented Novo’s GLP-1 franchise from achieving overall sales growth of 44% for the first nine months of the year.

In addition, the launch of Rybelsus (oral semaglutide), which delivered similar efficacy to Ozempic for T2D, has significantly driven the sales of Novo’s GLP-1 franchise with its ease of administration and improved compliance.

Akash Patel, Pharma Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Lilly’s recently launched dual GLP-1RA/glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) agonist Mounjaro (tirzepatide) is likely to have significant head-to-head competition with Novo’s Ozempic and GlobalData predicts that as the market size of T2D continues to increase globally, there will space for both companies to increase their market share and maintain significant competition.

“Although Lilly has launched Mounjaro) in the past year and has a triple agonist, retatrutide, a GLP-1RA/GIP/glucagon receptor (GR) entering Phase III of development, Novo Nordisk remains likely to maintain a significant share of the GLP-1 market. However, Lilly will steal a large market share from semaglutide and potentially become the dominant GLP-1RA provider.”

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