Following the release of the Office for National Statistics’ retail sales for March 2026:

Emily Scott, Retail Analyst at GlobalData, a leading intelligence and productivity platform, offers her view:

“ONS’ latest data shows that UK retail had a decent March 2026, with total sales excluding fuel (seasonally adjusted to account for the move of Easter into March this year) up 4.1% compared to March 2025. However, this result was predominantly inflationary-driven, given sales volumes rose just 0.2%. With limited momentum across non-food categories in particular, consumers are taking a more considered approach to discretionary spending. Retailers must prepare for a potential softening of retail spending in April and beyond amid deteriorating confidence in the UK economy.

“Consumer confidence has weakened considerably since the start of the Iran conflict, with GlobalData’s future sentiment index down 13.6 points between February 2026 and April 2026. Indeed, we anticipate that this will not be the lowest value that this index reaches this year. Households are under increasing pressure, shifting budgets towards essentials and absorbing rising fuel costs at the expense of discretionary products. And with inflation yet to reach its estimated peak for 2026, March’s ONS retail sales figure may represent a brief window of resilience before a more challenging period for consumer spending sets in. Retailers will need to navigate this testing environment with caution, emphasising value for money and adapting promotional activity to quickly react to shifting consumer priorities as spending continues to become more selective.”