Japan’s telecom and pay-TV services revenue is forecast to increase at a modest compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.3% over the 2025-2030 period, supported by 5G-led mobile data and fixed broadband segment growth, reveals GlobalData, a leading intelligence and productivity platform.
GlobalData’s Japan Telecom Operators Country Intelligence Report reveals that the mobile voice services revenue will decline during the forecast period due to free bundling of voice minutes by MNOs into their mobile plans, rising user preference for OTT/internet communication services and the subsequent decline in voice average revenue per user (ARPU).
Mobile data service revenue, on the other hand, will continue to increase at a CAGR of 2.9% over the forecast period, driven by the rising mobile internet subscriptions, a massive surge in data consumption and growing adoption of higher ARPU-5G services. Growing adoption of digital and video streaming services will encourage telcos to monetize rising demand for high-speed data services through premium data plans with high-data quotas, which will drive revenue growth.
Neha Mishra, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “5G continues to be the leading mobile technology in Japan in terms of subscriber base, thanks to the wider availability of 5G-compatible smartphones, and increasing migration of subscribers from 4G to 5G services.
Telecom operators in the country are investing in 5G network modernization, standalone (SA) deployments and 5G-Advanced (5G-A) capabilities to enhance network performance and support advanced enterprise and consumer use cases
In the fixed communication services segment, fixed voice service revenue will decline over the forecast period, due to the subscription losses in the circuit-switched segment and the declining fixed voice service ARPU over the forecast period. On the contrary, fixed broadband service revenue will grow at a moderate rate over the forecast period, driven by robust subscription growth in fiber lines, on the back of government initiatives to expand fiber coverage.
Mishra adds: “The growing adoption of FTTH broadband services in Japan can be attributed to the rising demand for high-speed connectivity, the government’s nationwide fiber expansion push such as the government’s aim to achieve 99.9% fiber coverage by 2027, and the migration of customers from legacy broadband technologies to fiber.”
Pay-TV services revenue in the country will grow at a marginal CAGR over the forecast period, as growth in IPTV and cable TV revenues will partially offset the decline in DTH revenues over the forecast period. Consumers in the country are increasingly dropping cable and satellite services for cheaper, on-demand streaming platforms. This shift is also accelerated by Japan’s aging and shrinking population with younger generations favoring mobile devices over traditional television sets.
Mishra concludes: “In the mobile services segment, NTT will remain the market leader, by subscription share through the forecast period, given its extensive subscriber base and continued investment in next-gen mobile technologies. NTT DOCOMO is also advancing 5G-Advanced and 6G development through AI-driven wireless technologies, achieving successful outdoor 6G trials and pioneering AI-enabled network architecture. NTT’s leadership in the fixed broadband segment is supported by its extensive nationwide fiber infrastructure.”
