The total mobile service revenue in Thailand is poised to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.9% from $8.5bn in 2022 to $10.8bn in 2027, mainly supported by increase in 5G subscriptions and rising data average revenue per user (ARPU), according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

According to GlobalData’s Thailand Mobile Broadband Forecast (Q3 2022), mobile voice service revenue in the country is expected to stagnate and register a negligible CAGR of 0.5% over the forecast period, given the increasing use of OTT-based communication services and the subsequent drop in mobile voice ARPU levels.

Mobile data service revenue, on the other hand, is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.6% over the same period, driven by the projected rise in the adoption of higher ARPU-5G subscriptions and growing consumption of mobile data services.

Kantipudi Pradeepthi, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, says: “The average monthly mobile data usage is expected to increase drastically from 20.4GB per month in 2022 to around 55.5GB per month in 2027, driven by the growing consumption of high-bandwidth online entertainment and social media content over smartphones.”

5G subscriptions will surpass that of 4G in 2026 and go on to account for 62% of the total mobile subscriptions in 2026, supported by 5G network expansion by all major operators, including Advanced Info Service (AIS), National Telecom (NT), Total Access Communication (Dtac), and True Move, and an increase in the availability of 5G compatible handsets in the market.

Pradeepthi concludes: “AIS will lead Thailand’s mobile services market, by subscription share in 2022, and will retain its leadership through 2027. Given the possibility of Thailand’s mobile market becoming a duopoly with the planned merger of the True Corp. and DTAC, AIS is looking to defend its position by investing in 5G network development. AIS has targeted a CAPEX of about THB30bn for FY 2022 to ensure adequate investments for 5G network infrastructure development and achieve 5G service quality leadership.”