The telecom and pay-TV services revenue in Australia is expected to increase at a modest compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.8% from $19.1 billion in 2024 to $19.9 billion in 2029, supported by mobile data and fixed broadband segments. Expanding 5G coverage and fiber network upgrades are set to bolster connectivity and support the market’s digital evolution over the forecast period, forecasts GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
GlobalData’s Australia Telecom Operators Country Intelligence Report reveals that mobile voice service revenues will decline during the forecast period, given the continued user migration to OTT-based communication platforms, and decline in mobile voice ARPU.
Mobile data service revenues, on the other hand, will increase at a CAGR of 3.8% over the forecast period driven by the growing mobile internet subscriptions and rising adoption of relatively high ARPU yielding 5G services.
Kantipudi Pradeepthi, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, says: “4G services accounted for a majority share of the overall mobile subscriptions in Australia in 2024. 5G subscriptions, on the other hand, are set to increase at a rapid pace and surpass 4G subscriptions, driven by the ongoing efforts of operators like Optus, TPG Telecom, and Telstra. For instance, Telstra aims to expand its 5G coverage to 95% of the country by the end of 2025.”
In the fixed communication services segment, fixed voice services will continue to decline, given the steady drop in VoIP subscriptions and discontinuation of circuit-switched services in the country. Fixed broadband service revenue, on the other hand, will grow at a CAGR of 1.2% over 2024-29, supported by the steady increase in coverage and adoption of fiber-to-the-home/business (FTTH/B) broadband services.
The Australian government has committed up to AUD3 billion ($1.86 billion) in equity funding in January 2025 to the National Broadband Service (NBN), supplemented by NBN Co’s AUD800 million ($494 million) investment, to upgrade the fiber-to-the-node (FTTN) network and improve broadband access for 622,000 households and businesses across the country by 2030.
Pay-TV service revenue in the country is set to decline over the forecast period in line with the losses in cable-TV and DTH subscriptions because of continued cord-cutting trend and growing preference for OTT video alternatives such as Netflix and Stan.
Telstra has led all the service segments, including mobile, fixed, and pay TV services, by subscriptions in 2024. While its ongoing expansion of 5G network and fiber broadband network coverage will help the operator maintain its leadership position in mobile and fixed broadband service segments, its strong foothold in the IPTV segment will help to maintain its lead in the pay-TV services market.
Pradeepthi concludes: “As Australia’s telecom landscape evolves, operators must prioritize investments in high-speed connectivity and service innovation to stay competitive. Strategic focus on 5G rollout, fiber expansion, and digital service offerings will be crucial in driving long-term revenue growth and meeting rising consumer expectations in an increasingly digital-first environment.”
