The telecom and pay-TV services revenue in China is forecast to increase at a modest compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.3% during 2025-30, supported by growth in the mobile data and fixed broadband segments, according to GlobalData, a leading intelligence and productivity platform.

GlobalData’s China Telecom Operators Country Intelligence Report reveals that the  country’s mobile voice services revenue will decline during the forecast period, due to the free bundling of voice minutes by mobile operators into their 5G data plans, the growing customer shift toward OTT-/internet-based communication apps, and the subsequent decline in voice average revenue per user (ARPU).

Mobile data services revenue, on the other hand, will increase at a CAGR of 4.2% over the forecast period, supported by a continued increase in 5G subscriptions and a subsequent rise in mobile data ARPUs. Mobile data revenue growth will also be driven by increasing mobile internet usage and the expansion of digital and video streaming services enabled by premium mobile data plans offered by mobile network operators (MNOs).

Machine-to-machine (M2M) / Internet of Things (IoT) subscriptions in the country will grow at a steady rate over the 2025-30 period, driven by 5G network upgrades/modernization, smart city and industrial automation initiatives, and the strong focus of telcos and the government on developing new M2M/IoT applications. For instance, China Telecom offers enterprise-grade, global IoT solutions driven by its 5G and cloud-network infrastructure.

Sarwat Zeeshan, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “5G subscriptions accounted for a 74.7% share of the total mobile subscriptions in China in 2025 and will remain the dominant mobile technology over the forecast period. This growth will be driven by the MIIT’s support for 5G infrastructure development in the country, wider availability of affordable 5G plans, and operators’ investments in enhancing network quality to encourage the migration of existing 4G users to 5G. As of March 2026, China had deployed nearly 5 million 5G base stations, underscoring the rapid expansion of its 5G infrastructure.”

In the fixed communication services segment, fixed voice services revenue will decline over the forecast period, due to losses in circuit-switched subscriptions and declining fixed voice ARPU. Fixed broadband services revenue, on the contrary, will increase over the forecast period, supported by a continued rise in adoption of higher-ARPU fiber broadband services and gigabit network upgrades across the country.

Zeeshan adds: “Fiber will remain the dominant technology delivering fixed broadband services across China, due to the continued migration of legacy broadband users to FTTH, supported by the country’s full-fiber network strategy and operators’ ongoing modernization of broadband infrastructure.”

Despite marginal subscription gains in both cable TV and IPTV segments, total pay-TV services revenue in China will decline slightly over the forecast period, due to a steady fall in pay-TV service ARPU levels, as consumers migrate to OTT and on-demand streaming platforms.

Zeeshan concludes: “China Mobile led the mobile services market in China in 2025 and will retain its leadership position over the forecast period through its strong subscriber scale, extensive 5G network leadership, and continued investment in next-generation mobile technologies. The operator is also focusing on innovative M2M/IoT services to drive opportunities in the enterprise segment. In the fixed communications market, China Mobile will also lead the fixed broadband segment through to 2030, supported by its considerable presence in the fiber segment and a strong focus on upgrading its gigabit broadband network across the country.”