The total fixed communication services revenue in Japan is expected to grow at a low compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.4% from $27.9 billion in 2023 to $28.5 billion in 2028, in line with continued decline in fixed voice service revenues and slow growth in fixed broadband service revenues, forecasts GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s Japan Fixed Communications Forecast (Q1-2024) reveals that fixed voice service revenue will decline at a 1.8% CAGR over the forecast period owing to a consumer shift from traditional telephony to mobile/over-the-top (OTT)-based communication services and the subsequent decline in voice service average revenue per user (ARPU) levels.

The total fixed broadband service revenue will grow, albeit marginally, at a CAGR of just about 1.0% between 2023 and 2028, weighed down by a continued decline in xDSL and cable internet subscriptions. Fiber broadband subscriptions, on the other hand, will increase at a nominal CAGR of 1.3% over the forecast period.

Pradeepthi Kantipudi, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Fiber broadband will continue to account for 87% of the total broadband lines in 2028, supported by high demand for faster broadband connectivity, the government and operators’ focus on fiber-optic network expansions and upgrades, and the increased availability of competitively priced fiber broadband plans. As a result, fiber optic service revenue is expected to increase at a CAGR of 2.0% between 2023 and 2028.”

Pradeepthi concludes: “NTT will lead both the fixed voice and fixed broadband segments in terms of subscriptions through 2028. In the fixed broadband segment, NTT’s subscriptions are supported by its different tariff plans, such as fixed tariffs and two-level tariffs based on data usage, which are aimed at serving customers varying usage needs right from entry- to premium-level.”