Japan’s mobile services market is set for steady but modest expansion through 2030, as surging mobile data consumption offsets the structural decline in voice and messaging revenues. Rising smartphone usage, premium 5G adoption, and growing IoT connectivity will underpin this shift, reshaping operator revenue models and reinforcing data-driven growth as the primary engine of the country’s evolving telecom landscape, says GlobalData, a leading intelligence and productivity platform.
GlobalData’s Japan Mobile Communications Forecast (Q3 2025) reveals that the country’s mobile services revenue is expected to grow at a modest compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.1% from $48.7 billion in 2025 to $51.4 billion in 2030.
Sarwat Zeeshan, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Mobile voice service revenue will decline at a CAGR of 2% over the forecast period, due to the increasing consumer shift towards OTT/internet-based communication platforms, and the subsequent decline in mobile voice ARPU levels.
“Mobile data service revenue, on the other hand, will increase at a CAGR of 2.1% between 2025 and 2030, driven by the continued growth in mobile internet subscriptions, and increasing consumption of mobile data services, most importantly with increasing adoption of higher ARPU-yielding premium 5G services.”
The average monthly data usage over mobile networks is forecast to increase from 16.6GB in 2025 to 25GB in 2030, driven by the growing consumption of online video and social media content over smartphones, on the back of data-centric packages offered by telcos.
5G will remain the leading mobile technology in terms of subscriptions through 2030, thanks to the ongoing 5G network modernization efforts by major MNOs, greater availability and affordability of 5G smartphones and telcos offering premium 5G plans.
The evolution and expansion of 5G networks will also add fillip to the M2M/IoT service adoption in the country as companies explore new IoT/M2M use cases enabled by 5G networks. M2M/IoT subscriptions are expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.2% over the forecast period.
NTT led the mobile services market in Japan in terms of mobile subscriptions in 2025, followed by KDDI. NTT will retain its leading position through to 2030, supported by its strong focus on M2M/IoT offerings and 5G network expansion and modernization to serve the rising demand for high-speed services by customers.
Zeeshan concludes: “Japan’s mobile market is entering a phase where growth will depend less on subscriber expansion and more on the monetisation of data-rich services. Operators that scale premium 5G, accelerate IoT ecosystems, and package high-value digital services effectively will be best positioned to sustain revenue momentum in an increasingly data-centric telecom landscape.”
