New Zealand’s mobile service revenue is poised to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.3% from $1.9 billion in 2025 to $2.2 billion in 2030, mainly supported by growth in mobile data service segment, reveals GlobalData, a leading intelligence and productivity platform.

GlobalData’s New Zealand Mobile Broadband Forecast (Q1 2026) indicates that mobile voice service revenue will decline at a CAGR of 1.9% over the forecast period due to the increasing consumer preference for over-the-top (OTT) communication platforms, and subsequent decline in voice average revenue per user (ARPU) levels.

Mobile data service revenue, on the other hand, is expected to increase at a healthy CAGR of 6% over the forecast period, driven by the steady growth in mobile internet subscriptions, especially on 4G/5G networks, and increase in mobile data ARPU.

Srikanth Vaidya, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, says: “The average monthly data usage over mobile networks is forecast to increase from 8.71GB in 2025 to 14.68GB in 2030, driven by the increasing consumption of online video and social media content over mobile network on the back of 4G/5G service expansions across the country, and the data-centric plans offered by MNOs.”

GlobalData expects 5G service adoption to increase over the forecast period, driven by the growing consumer demand for high-speed connectivity, wider availability of 5G service plans, ongoing 5G network expansions and upgrades by telcos.

M2M/IoT subscriptions are set to increase at a CAGR of 3.5% over 2025-2030. Driving this momentum, operators such as One NZ are leveraging national 4G & 5G mobile infrastructure to deliver secure, fast, and scalable cellular IoT connectivity, supporting always-on, real-time applications such as connected vehicles, POS terminals, and digital signage across both IoT Managed and Local Connectivity platforms.

Rising 5G adoption, expanding M2M/IoT deployments, and surging data consumption underscore a shift toward digital connectivity, as operators modernize networks and cater to the evolving consumer and enterprise demands across the telecom landscape.

One New Zealand led the mobile services market, by subscription share in 2025, and will maintain its leadership through 2030, driven by its ongoing mobile network expansion and modernization efforts. The operator also has a dominant position in the growing M2M/IoT market, thanks to its strong focus on innovative M2M/IoT services to drive opportunities in the enterprise segment.

Vaidya concludes: “The growing demand for high-speed connectivity and enterprise-grade IoT solutions will be pivotal in reshaping New Zealand’s mobile landscape. Operators that prioritize network modernization, spectrum efficiency, and tailored data-centric offerings will be best positioned to capitalize on the evolving usage patterns and unlock long-term revenue potential.”