New Zealand’s mobile service revenue is poised to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1% from $1.6 billion in 2023 to $1.7 billion in 2028, mainly supported by the mobile data service segment, forecasts GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s New Zealand Mobile Broadband Forecast (Q3-2023) reveals that the mobile voice service revenue will decline at a 2.7% CAGR over the forecast period owing to the growing consumer preference for internet-based communication services and the subsequent decline in voice service average revenue per user (ARPU) levels.

Mobile data service revenue, on the other hand, will increase at a CAGR of 4.2% between 2023 and 2028, driven by the growing consumption of mobile data services on 4G/5G networks, continued rise in smartphone subscriptions and projected rise in higher-ARPU yielding-5G subscriptions.

Hrushikesh Mahananda, Telecom Research Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The average monthly data usage is forecast to increase from 6.5GB in 2023 to 12.2GB in 2028, driven by the increasing consumption of online video and social media content over smartphones, on the back of the growing availability and adoption of 4G/5G services and the data-centric packages offered by MNOs.”

4G will remain the leading mobile technology in terms of subscriptions through 2028, driven by the operators’ LTE network upgradation and expansions. 5G subscriptions, on the other hand, are estimated to increase at the fastest rate over the forecast period and are expected to garner about 32% share of the total mobile subscriptions by the end of 2028, driven by the ongoing 5G network investments and expansions by operators.

Mahananda concludes: “One New Zealand (formerly Vodafone New Zealand) will lead the mobile services market in terms of subscriptions through 2028 given its strong focus on 4G and 5G network developments and expansion across the country. The operator is also focusing on M2M/IoT opportunities with plans to cover up to 60% of the geographic area with NB-IoT network by 2024.”