The total mobile service revenue in Indonesia is poised to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.7% from $11 billion in 2024 to $13.2 billion in 2029, mainly supported by the growth in mobile data service segment, forecasts GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
GlobalData’s research reveals that while mobile voice service revenue will decline at a CAGR of 1.2% during 2024-2029 given the consumer shift towards OTT-based communication platforms and the subsequent decline in mobile voice ARPU, mobile data service revenue will increase at a CAGR of 5%, driven by the continued rise in smartphone subscriptions, increasing 4G subscriptions, and projected growth in adoption of higher-ARPU yielding 5G services.
Sarwat Zeeshan, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The average monthly mobile data usage in Indonesia is expected to increase from 12.1 GB in 2024 to 17.2 GB in 2029, driven by the growing consumption of online video and social media content over smartphones, thanks to the growing availability and adoption of 5G services and data-centric offers extended by telcos with their 5G service plans.”
4G accounted for the largest share of mobile subscriptions in the country until 2024 and will remain the most dominant network technology by subscriber base through 2029 given the operators’ continued 4G/LTE network expansions and decommissioning of 3G networks in the country.
For instance, Telkomsel expanded its 4G network coverage to more than 97% of the country’s population in 2024 and even upgraded its entire 3G network to 4G/LTE technology in June 2023.
The ongoing 5G network developments by operators with plans for more widespread 5G network rollouts will drive 5G’s share of the total mobile subscriptions to 20.8% in 2029.
The mobile service market in the country is largely dominated by the prepaid service segment, driven by the operators’ wide variety of pricing plans – from basic packages starting at IDR 5,000 ($0.30) to premium options that include a range of value-added benefits.
Zeeshan concludes: “Telkomsel led the mobile services market in Indonesia in terms of mobile subscriptions in 2024. The operator will retain its leading position through to 2029, supported by its strong focus on 4G network expansions and 5G network rollouts. The telco has launched 5G services in over 56 cities/regencies with 1,000 5G base stations as of 2024.”
