Japan’s mobile service revenue is poised to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.2% from $65 billion in 2023 to $87.9 billion in 2028, mainly supported by the mobile data service segment, forecasts GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s Indonesia Mobile Broadband Forecast (Q2-2023) reveals that mobile voice service revenue will decline at a 0.8% CAGR over the forecast period due to the widespread consumer shift towards over-the-top (OTT) communication platforms and the subsequent decline in voice average revenue per user (ARPU) levels.

Mobile data service revenue, on the other hand, will increase at a CAGR of 8.2% between 2023 and 2028, driven by the continued rise in smartphone subscriptions and projected rise in higher-ARPU yielding-5G subscriptions.

Hrushikesh Mahananda, Telecom Research Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The average monthly data usage is forecast to increase from 12.9GB in 2023 to 24.4GB in 2028, driven by the increasing consumption of online video and social media content over smartphones, on the back of the growing availability and adoption of 5G services and the data-centric packages offered by MNOs.

4G will remain the leading mobile technology in terms of subscriptions until 2025. 5G subscriptions will however surpass 4G subscriptions and go on to account for 79% share of the total mobile subscriptions in 2028 driven by 5G network expansion initiatives by major mobile operators.

Mahananda concludes: “NTT Docomo will lead the mobile services market in terms of subscriptions through 2028 given its strong focus on 5G network expansion across the country as it aims to expand its 5G coverage to 97% of the population by 2024. The operator has also partnered with Nokia, NEC, and Fujitsu to develop new technologies for experimental trails of 6G services, which it aims to commercialize by 2030.”