The overall mobile services revenue in Japan is poised to register a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.1% from $72.7 billion in 2021 to $93 billion in 2026, supported by growth in smartphone subscriptions and mobile data service revenues, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s Japan Mobile Broadband Forecast Model (Q2-2022) reveals that while mobile voice service revenues will continue to decline, mobile data service revenue will increase at a CAGR of 7.5% during the outlook period, primarily driven by growing mobile internet subscriptions, and increasing adoption of higher average per user revenue (ARPU)-yielding 5G services.

Aasif Iqbal, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, says: “The average monthly mobile data usage is expected to increase significantly from 9.5GB in 2021 to 20.6GB in 2026, driven by the rising consumption of online video and social media content on smartphones and data-centric packages. In addition, the projected increase in 5G service adoption will increase mobile data usage over the forecast period.”

5G subscriptions in Japan will surpass 4G subscriptions in 2025 and go on to account for 70.1% share of the total mobile subscriptions in 2026, due to 5G network expansions by major mobile operators including NTT Docomo, KDDI, Softbank and Rakuten.

Iqbal concludes: “NTT Docomo led the mobile services market in Japan in terms of mobile subscription share in 2021, followed by KDDI and Softbank Japan. NTT Docomo will remain the leading postpaid services provider in the country through to 2026, given its focus on mobile network expansion and strong presence in the postpaid segment.”