The total telecom and pay-TV services revenue in Australia is expected to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.1% over the forecast period 2023-2028, led by the growth in mobile data and fixed broadband service segments, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s Australia Telecom Operators Country Intelligence Report reveals that mobile voice service revenue will decline at a CAGR of 1.4% between 2023 and 2028 due to consumer shift towards OTT communication platforms and the subsequent decline in mobile voice ARPU. Mobile data revenue, on the other hand, will increase at a CAGR of 5.9% over the same period, driven by the continued rise in mobile internet subscriptions, growing adoption of 5G services and an increase in mobile data average revenue per user (ARPU) over the forecast period.

Sarwat Zeeshan, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, says: “4G services accounted for the largest share of mobile services market, in terms of subscriptions, in 2023. However, its share will decline over the forecast period, due to continued migration of subscribers to 5G services.

The growth in 5G subscriptions will be driven by growing consumer demand for high-speed wireless network connectivity, wider availability of 5G services on the back of operators’ network expansion and modernization initiatives, and the promotional/discounted 5G plans available to customers. For instance, Telstra’s 5G coverage reached more than 85% of the country’s population in 2023 and aims to expand up to 95% of the population by 2025-end. 5G subscriptions will account for a majority 82.5% share of total mobile subscriptions in 2028.”

In the fixed communication services segment, fixed voice service revenue will decline over the forecast period, due to losses in circuit-switched subscriptions and declining fixed voice ARPU. Fixed broadband service revenue, on the other hand, will grow at a CAGR of 2.3% over 2023-2028 period, driven by the steady growth in fiber broadband subscriptions.

Zeeshan adds: “Growing demand for higher-speed broadband connectivity and the expansion of fiber-optic network infrastructure by the government across the country will support growth in fiber broadband subscriptions over the forecast period.

Pay-TV services revenue in the country will decline over the forecast period, due to subscription losses in DTH and cable TV subscriptions and growing user preference for OTT video alternatives such as Netflix, Disney+ Hotstar, Binge, and Amazon Prime.

Zeeshan concludes: “Telstra led the mobile, fixed voice, fixed broadband and pay-TV services markets in Australia, in terms of mobile subscriptions in 2023. Telstra will retain its leading position in the mobile segment through to 2028, supported by its strong focus on 5G network expansion and modernization. Telstra aims to provide 5G coverage to 95% of the country’s population by 2025. In the fixed broadband segment, Telstra’s leadership is supported by its strong focus on fiber network expansion initiatives.”