The telecom and pay-TV services market in Vietnam is set to grow to $6.5 billion in 2026, witnessing a marginal compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1% over the forecast period 2021-2026, mainly supported by mobile data segment, observes GlobalData.

The leading data and analytics company’s, ‘Vietnam Telecom Operators Country Intelligence Report’, reveals that mobile voice service revenue will decline over the forecast period, given the continued user migration to over the top (OTT) based communication platforms, and a decline in mobile voice average revenue per user (ARPU). On the other hand, mobile data service revenue is poised to increase at a CAGR of 10.2%, driven by growing mobile internet subscriptions and increases in data ARPU.

Aasif Iqbal, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “4G services in Vietnam are expected to surpass 3G to become the leading mobile technology by subscriber base in 2022. 4G subscriptions are set to grow rapidly and will account for 62.3% of total subscriptions by 2026, supported by ongoing LTE network expansions by mobile network operators (MNOs). With the country’s telecom regulator planning to issue 5G licenses in 2022 and all the key operators – Viettel, VNPT-Vinaphone, and Mobifone already carrying out 5G trials, Vietnam hopes to see the commercial rollout of 5G services by the end of 2022.”

In the fixed communication services segment, while voice service revenue will decline over the forecast period, given the continued drop in circuit-switched subscriptions and fixed voice ARPU, fixed broadband service revenue is expected to increase supported by a growth in fiber-to-the-home/building (FTTH/B) subscriptions, on the back of the government’s efforts to expand fixed broadband networks in the country.

Aasif adds: “The adoption of fibre broadband services in the country is growing at a healthy pace, primarily supported by continued rise in the demand for high-speed data services and expansion of fibre-optic network infrastructure. Under the National Digital Transformation Programme, the Ministry of Communications aims to extend fibre-optic network coverage to 100% of communes and 80% of homes by the end of 2025.”

Pay-TV services revenue in Vietnam is set to decline over the forecast period in line with continued losses in DTH subscriptions and declining aggregate pay-TV ARPU. Moreover, cord-cutting trends, due to growing preference for OTT-based platforms, will continue to affect pay-TV service revenue over the forecast period.

Aasif concludes: “In 2021, Viettel was the leading player by subscriptions in the mobile services segment. The company will continue to hold the top spot throughout the forecast period with its focus on 4G network expansion and 5G network development. VNPT topped the fixed voice and fixed broadband segments. In fixed broadband segment, VNPT will continue to lead through 2026, supported by its strong presence in the FTTH segment. VTV led the Pay-TV services market in 2021 by subscriptions, thanks to its strong position in the cable TV segment.”