GlobalData Plc

Following the release of 24 Government papers (Thursday 23 August 2018) covering the likely impact of a no-deal Brexit,

Analysts at GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company, offer their view on how the UK Government’s no-deal Brexit plans will affect Foodservice, Technology, Financial Services and Pharma Industries:

Foodservice

Morgane Richert, Senior Analyst – Foodservice at GlobalData, comments,

“At least in the short term, a no-deal Brexit will severely disrupt the UK’s food supplies, and this will have an inevitable knock-on effect on foodservice operators across the country. According to the Department for Environment Food & Rural Affairs, 30% of the country’s food supplies are imported from the EU, and a disruption to the flow of these goods across the border will result in decreased choice and profitability for restaurants.
‘‘Just over half of British foodservice consumers already feel that their budget does not always allow them to eat out. Widespread uncertainty, combined with rising prices across the board, is likely to encourage increasingly frugal spending habits among these consumers. Independent operators that have already embraced local and sustainable food sourcing practices will be better able to withstand the challenges ahead, and a no-deal Brexit might encourage more restaurants to look closer to home for their procurement needs.”

Technology

Josh Hewer, Technology Lead Analyst, IoT Insights at GlobalData, comments,

‘‘Up to a point the Industrial Internet of Things market will be relatively ambivalent to Brexit. UK Telcos’ unclear low power networking road maps means the good work in, for example NB-IoT roaming between DT and Vodafone on the continent, means most of British industry is unaffected immediately.

‘‘Problems will likely emerge later on, namely around access to start-ups with niche solutions and on-premise cloud. Best of breed solutions are beginning to emerge but often with low margins, so that tariffs may slow mass adoption. Whilst the emergence of Machine Learning to enhance IoT and its dependence on cloud computing means that data sovereignty regulation risks encumbering the capabilities of UK plc to deliver smart products overseas.’’

Financial Services – Banking:

Kit Carson, Head of Banking & Fintech at GlobalData, comments,

“There will certainly be angst amongst British pension takers living in the EU this morning but my chief concern is UK household’s resilience to any further economic shock.
‘‘Over the last 18 months, a combination of low wage growth, rising expenditure and static consumer spending have resulted in the household saving ratio reaching an all-time low at the same time and this will leave consumers vulnerable should economic conditions deteriorate. For example, the UK’s decision to leave the European Union has led to a sharp devaluation of sterling and if the Monetary Policy Committee leverage the Bank of England base rate to protect sterling, this could lead to higher debt default rates.”

Financial Services – Payments:

Samuel Murrant, Financial Services Senior Analyst, Payments at GlobalData, comments,

‘‘In the event of a no-deal Brexit, the UK will lose two key things: access to the pan-European payment infrastructure, and the EU regulations that keep credit card transaction fees and surcharges in check. All of this will combine to make card payments more expensive to accept for merchants and more expensive for consumers to make.

‘‘Online purchases of goods from Europe or sales to Europe will become slower and more expensive to make. We will likely find that cash is suddenly in much higher demand domestically, while cross-border e-commerce will likely fall off a cliff in the short term.’’

Pharmaceuticals

Thomas Moore, Senior Pharma Analyst at GlobalData, comments,

‘‘Overall, these Gov’t publications will be seen as a positive step by the pharmaceuticals industry, which according to a recent GlobalData survey on the impact of Brexit on the healthcare sector has shown discontent at the uncertainty surrounding the issue. The number of technical details published which is directly related to the healthcare sector provide some reassurance to those in the industry that the UK Gov’t holds the continued availability of medicines after Brexit as a priority.”

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