Net Present Value Model: Bavencio
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Overview
Evaluating the value of drugs is a complicated practice and requires a deep knowledge of the drug itself, the market currently and in the future, knowledge of cash inflows and outflows and the potential success rates for each stage of drug development. GlobalData has done all of this work for you, leveraging its gold standard Drugs Intelligence database to create high-value NPV models for purchase on a drug-by-drug basis.
Drug Operating Profit Model
Bavencio Drug Details
Avelumab (MSB-0010718C, Bavencio) is a programmed human IgG1 lambda monoclonal antibody. It is formulated as solution and concentrate solution for intravenous route of administration. Avelumab is indicated for the treatment of adults and pediatric patients 12 years and older with metastatic Merkel cell carcinoma. It is also indicated for the treatment of patients with locally advanced or metastatic urothelial carcinoma (UC) who have disease progression during or following platinum-containing chemotherapy, or who have disease progression within 12 months of neoadjuvant or adjuvant treatment with platinum-containing chemotherapy, in combination with axitinib is indicated for the first-line treatment of patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC), and for maintenance treatment of patients with locally advanced or metastatic urothelial carcinoma (UC) that has not progressed with first-line platinum-containing chemotherapy.Avelumab (MSB-0010718C) is under development for the treatment of advanced or metastatic squamous anal cancer (SCCAC), adenocarcinoma of the gastro esophageal junction, gastric cancer, homologous-recombination deficient (HRD) ovarian cancer, diffuse large b-cell lymphoma, non-small cell lung cancer, bladder cancer, metastatic transitional cell carcinoma of the urothelium including the bladder, urethra, renal pelvis, and ureter, epithelial ovarian cancer, fallopian tube cancer, peritoneal cancer, head and neck cancer squamous cell carcinoma, epithelial ovarian cancer, fallopian tube cancer, peritoneal cancer, TNBC, squamous non-small cell lung cancer, colorectal cancer, neuroendocrine carcinoma, renal pelvis cancer, upper urinary tract cancer and bladder cancer, urethral cancer, progressing tenosynovial giant cell tumor/pigmented villonodular synovitis, follicular lymphoma, hepatocellular carcinoma, metastatic hormone refractory (castration resistant, androgen-independent) prostate cancer, muscle invasive bladder cancer (MIBC), recurrent head and neck cancer squamous cell carcinoma, endometrial cancer, peripheral t-cell lymphomas (PTCL),anaplastic large cell lymphoma (ALCL),natural killer cell lymphomas, transformed mycosis fungoides, angioimmunoblastic t-cell lymphoma (AITL)/immunoblastic lymphadenopathy, angiosarcoma, glioblastoma (GBM),small-cell lung cancer, osteosarcoma, relapsed acute myeloid leukemia, refractory acute myeloid leukemia, malignant mesothelioma, hepatobiliary system tumor, adrenocortical carcinoma (adrenal cortex cancer), head and neck cancer squamous cell carcinoma, pancreatic cancer, mantle cell lymphoma, meningioma, squamous cell carcinoma, penile cancer and precancerous condition. It was also under development for the treatment of neuroendocrine gastroenteropancreatic tumors (GEP-NET), neuroendocrine tumors, renal cell carcinoma, Hodgkin lymphoma (B-Cell Hodgkin lymphoma), gastric cancer, melanoma, adenocarcinoma of the gastroesophageal junction (third-line therapy), epithelial ovarian cancer (first line therapy, second-line therapy),fallopian tube cancer, peritoneal cancer, non-small cell lung cancer (second line therapy), cervical cancer, Merkel cell carcinomax, nasopharyngeal cancer, leiomyosarcoma, pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, relapsed /refractory multiple myeloma, colon cancer, central nervous system tumor, glioma and head and neck cancer.
Report Coverage
GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, potential applicable patients, drug margins, company expenses, and pricing estimates. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
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Reasons to Buy
- Better understand the quantitative value of a specific drug
- Create or support internal NPV models to improve accuracy
- Understand the profit a drug is expected to make, taking into account revenue and cost forecasts leveraging public and proprietary data sets.
Frequently asked questions
- All drug sales and forecasts within NPV Model are calculated in our proprietary company based models . In these models, Analyst Consensus forecasts are built by using company-specific broker reports to create the sales forecasts for each Drug and Segment.
- Sales and forecasts are not indication-specific where drugs are approved , or in development, for multiple indications. Please refer to GlobalData’s Disease Analysis reports for indication-specific sales forecasts.
- Risk-adjusted NPVs use GlobalData’s LoA and PTSR for the indication in the highest development stage. Please refer to the Likelihood of Approval methodology for more details on this content.
GlobalData’s NPV Model is a premium model providing a fully-interactive forecasting and valuation tool, driven by Analyst Consensus estimates, enabling users to analyze and customize valuations for pharmaceutical assets including drugs or segments. The tool provides 17-year drug forecasts from companies with sales forecast data in the pharmaceutical industry, including established global firms and emerging biotechs, which allows access to critical information to facilitate strategic decision making around pharmaceutical assets
The NPV Model includes a forecasted Revenue Model, followed by a proprietary Patent Expiry Model, Operating Profit Model, Net Profit (apply Tax rate) and Discounted Cash Flow (apply Discount rates), to derive Net Present Value (NPV) for a chosen pharmaceutical asset
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