Biofuels and Renewable Refineries Continue to Gain Momentum – Market Trends and Outlook

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Biofuels and Renewable Refineries Market Report Overview

Biofuels produce fewer carbon emissions over their lifetime than conventional fuels and so offer decarbonization potential to industries that are unsuitable for electrification. Ethanol, FAME biodiesel, renewable diesel, bio-methanol, and sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) are renewable fuels generated through the processing of biomass.

Furthermore, the decarbonization potential of biofuels and growing policy support has led to their increasing demand encouraging many refiners to consider venturing into renewable fuels. Options for refiners include co-processing, conversion of conventional refineries to renewable refineries, and standalone renewable refinery projects.

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The report analyzes the current biofuels and renewable refineries market and the refinery conversion trend.

Biofuel Type ·        Ethanol

·        FAME Biodiesel

·        Renewable Diesel

·        Biomethanol

·        Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFS)

Key Players ·        Aventine Renewable Energy

·        Ag Processing Inc

·        Total Energies

·        Marathon Petroleum

·        Shell

Key Renewable Refinery Projects ·        Ciudad Dorada Renewable

·        Baton Rouge Renewable

·        Penwell Renewable

·        Singapore Renewable

·        Rotterdam Renewable

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Biofuels Market Outlook

Biofuels have lower emissions over a lifetime than fossil fuels, thus getting support from policymakers.

Biofuels will experience a strong increase in consumption, facilitated by policy shifts and the increasing scale of production, which will alleviate some of the cost barriers for this technology.

SAFs will experience strong growth between 2022 and 2040, facilitated by policies aimed at decarbonizing the aviation sector such as the Refuel EU Aviation Initiative. On the other hand, ethanol will show a more gradual increase over the same time frame owing to its use in agriculture and comparatively lower energy content than conventional fuels.

Biofuels – Key Players

A few of the key players in the biofuels market are Aventine Renewable Energy, Ag Processing Inc, Total Energies, Marathon Petroleum, and Shell among others.

Biofuels – Key Players

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Renewable Refineries Market Outlook

Production of renewable diesel and SAFS is expected to rise significantly between 2020 and 2030. The growth will be facilitated by an increasing number of renewable refineries becoming operational. Additionally, the conversion of small oil and gas refineries will contribute to the increase in the total number of refineries. In addition, standalone renewable projects will make up the most of future capacity.

The US continues to be the dominant global player in terms of production. This existing dominance and skills base leaves the country in a strong position for the further development of renewable refineries. Other notable countries in this field include the Netherlands, Sweden, Spain, Turkey, and Italy among others.

Key Highlights

  • SAFs are expected to overtake FAME Biodiesel in 2037. The strong growth will be facilitated by policies aimed at decarbonizing the aviation sector such as the Refuel EU Aviation Initiative.
  • Ethanol will show a more gradual increase over the same time frame which reflects some of this fuel’s drawbacks such as its use of edible crops and comparatively lower energy content than conventional fuels, which increases fuel consumption and overall running costs.
  • Neste Corp recorded the highest number of mentions of biofuels within its filings since 2020, recording 134 across this time frame.
  • The United States will remain the dominant player in terms of production of renewable fuel production capacity in 2030.

Scope

  • Assessment of conventional biofuels within the current market and their limiting factors.
  • Key market players for each biofuel.
  • Upcoming biofuels policies.
  • Biofuel deals and company filings data.
  • Renewable fuel consumption and production forecasts.
  • Geography of active and upcoming renewable refinery projects.
  • The current renewable refinery conversion trend and its challenges.
  • Leading companies that are converting crude oil refineries.

Key Highlights

  • SAFs are expected to overtake FAME Biodiesel in 2037. The strong growth will be facilitated by policies aimed at decarbonizing the aviation sector such as the Refuel EU Aviation Initiative.
  • Ethanol will show a more gradual increase over the same time frame which reflects some of this fuel’s drawbacks such as its use of edible crops and comparatively lower energy content than conventional fuels, which increases fuel consumption and overall running costs.
  • Neste Corp recorded the highest number of mentions of biofuels within its filings since 2020, recording 134 across this time frame.
  • The United States will remain the dominant player in terms of production of renewable fuel production capacity in 2030.

Reasons to Buy

  • Obtain the most up-to-date information on recent developments and policies related to the oil refinery conversion trend.
  • Identify the opportunities of challenges associated with the switch from oil refining to renewable refineries.
  • Assess competitors based on their active and pipeline capacities for renewable fuel production and gain an overview of the largest upcoming renewable refinery project.
  • Develop business strategies by identifying the most promising route to renewable fuel conversion.

Aventine renewable energy Inc
POET LLC
Valero Energy Corp
Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc
Cerradinho Bioenergia S.A
Renewable Energy Group
Ag Processing Inc
Cargill Inc
World Energy LLC
ADM Ltd
Neste Corp
Diamond Green Diesel LLC
UPM Corp
Eni SpA
TotalEnergies SE
Moller-Maersk AS
MOL
Waterfront Shipping Ltd
Marinvest
Gevo
SkyNRG
Alder Fuels
FutureFuel Corp
Darling Ingredients Inc
Bangchak Corporation PCL
TotalEnergies
Borregaard ASA
Amentis Inc
Suncor Energy Inc
Repsol SA
Marathon Petroleum Corp
PT Pertamina
Exxon Mobil Corp
Cresta Fund Management LLC
Shell plc
Global Clean Energy Holdings Inc
Corral Petroleum Holdings AB
BP Plc
HF Sinclair Corp
Preem AB
Imperial Oil Ltd
PBF Energy Inc
Phillips66
North Atlantic Refining Ltd.

Table of Contents

  • 1. Executive Summary
  • 2. Biofuels Briefing

    • 2.1. Introducing our five focus biofuels
    • 2.2. Advantages and disadvantages of biofuels
    • 2.3. Key players in the biofuels market
    • 2.4. Biofuel policies driving increasing consumption

  • 3. Biofuels Market Outlook

    • 3.1. Biofuel consumption trends
    • 3.2. Biofuel deal activity
    • 3.3. Biofuel filing trends

  • 4. Renewable Refineries Outlook

    • 4.1. Production capacity outlook
    • 4.2. Renewable fuels market landscape
    • 4.3. Largest active and upcoming renewable refineries
    • 4.4. Renewable refinery projects by type

  • 5. The switch to renewable refineries

    • 5.1. Oil and gas sector strategies amid the rise of renewable fuels
    • 5.2. Advantages and disadvantages of refinery conversion
    • 5.3. Active and upcoming conversion projects
    • 5.4. Top companies converting refineries

  • 6. Standalone vs conversion projects

Table

Key players in the biofuels market

Biofuels main policies, strategies, and targets

Crude refineries conversion and co-processing: active and upcoming projects

Figures

Renewable fuel consumption, 2022-2040

Ethanol consumption, 2022-2040

Biofuel deal activity

Number of companies mentioning ‘biofuels’ within their filings, 2016-July 2023

Top ten filer companies for mentions of ‘biofuels’, Jan 2020 – July 2023

Renewable fuel production capacity and projects, 2020 – 2030

Renewable refinery capacity by country, 2020

Renewable refinery capacity by country, 2030

World’s largest renewable refinery projects by capacity in 2030

Current renewable refinery projects by stage of development

Upcoming renewable refineries by type

Top companies retrofitting crude oil refineries capacity

Renewable refineries: converted and co-processing vs standalone

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