EpiCast Report: Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension – Epidemiology Forecast to 2024

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PAH is a rare and severe condition characterized by vascular proliferation and remodeling of the small pulmonary arteries. This results in progressively increasing pulmonary vascular resistance, leading to an increase in pulmonary arterial pressure. The disease typically results in right-sided heart failure and premature death. PAH can be idiopathic, heritable, or associated with different conditions such as connective tissue disease (CTD), congenital heart disease (CHD), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, and exposure to toxins or drugs. PAH occurs twice as frequently in women as in men.

GlobalData epidemiologists forecast an increase in the diagnosed incident cases of PAH in the 7MM, from 1,769 diagnosed incident cases in 2014 to 1,838 diagnosed incident cases in 2024, with an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 0.39% during the forecast period. In 2024, the US will have the highest number of diagnosed incident cases of PAH in the 7MM, with 677 diagnosed incident cases, whereas the UK will have the lowest number of diagnosed incident cases of PAH, with 74 diagnosed incident cases. Similarly, the diagnosed prevalent cases of PAH in the 7MM are expected to increase from 9,926 diagnosed prevalent cases in 2014 to 10,285 diagnosed prevalent cases in 2024, with an AGR of 0.36% during the forecast period. In 2024, the US will have the highest number of diagnosed prevalent cases of PAH in the 7MM, with 4,325 diagnosed prevalent cases, whereas the UK will have the lowest number of diagnosed prevalent cases of PAH, with 443 diagnosed prevalent cases.

GlobalData’s epidemiological forecast for the diagnosed incident and the diagnosed prevalent cases of PAH in the 7MM is supported by age- and sex-specific data. The forecast methodology was kept consistent across the 7MM to allow for a meaningful comparison of the projected diagnosed incident cases and diagnosed prevalent cases of PAH across the markets. Additionally, GlobalData epidemiologists provided the diagnosed prevalent cases of PAH in each of the 7MM, segmented by the NYHA functional class I–IV, which is an important factor for predicting the prognosis, as well as the need for various clinical and treatment modalities specific to the functional classes, for PAH. GlobalData epidemiologists also provide an additional forecast for the diagnosed incident and diagnosed prevalent cases of PAH, adjusted for the underestimation of registry based forecast. These two different types of forecast strengthen the analysis, and present a comparative assessment of the extent of underestimation when using registry based data, which can be evaluated to provide better insights on the burden of the condition.

Scope

The Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (PAH) EpiCast Report and EpiCast Model provide an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and global trends for RSV infection in the seven major markets (7MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast of the diagnosed incident cases and diagnosed prevalent cases of PAH, segmented by sex, and age (in 10-year increments beginning at 0 years and ending at =85 years in these markets.

The PAH epidemiology report and model were written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.

The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 10MM.

The EpiCast Model is easy to navigate, interactive with dashboards, and epidemiology-based with transparent and consistent methodologies. Moreover, the model supports data presented in the report and showcases disease trends over a 10-year forecast period using reputable sources.

Table of Contents

1Table of Contents

1.1List of Tables

1.2List of Figures

2Introduction

2.1Catalyst

2.2Related Reports

2.3Upcoming Reports

3Epidemiology

3.1Disease Background

3.2Risk Factors and Comorbidities

3.3Global Trends

3.3.1Incidence and Prevalence

3.4Forecast Methodology

3.4.1Sources Used

3.4.2Sources Not Used

3.4.3Forecast Assumptions and Methods

3.5Epidemiological Forecast for PAH (2014–2024)

3.5.1Epidemiological Forecast for PAH — Based on Registry Data

3.5.2Epidemiological Forecast for PAH – Adjusted for Underestimation

3.6Discussion

3.6.1Epidemiological Forecast Insight

3.6.2Limitations of the Analysis

3.6.3Strengths of the Analysis

4Appendix

4.1Bibliography

4.2About the Authors

4.2.1Epidemiologists

4.2.2Reviewers

4.2.3Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology

4.2.4Global Head of Healthcare

4.3About GlobalData

4.4About EpiCast

4.5Contact Us

4.6Disclaimer

Table

Table 1: WHO Guidelines, Modified New York Heart Association Functional Classes I–IV

Table 2: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for PAH

Table 3: 7MM, Global Trends for the Diagnosed Incidence of PAH

Table 4: 7MM, Global Trends for the Diagnosed Prevalence of PAH

Table 5: 7MM Sources of Epidemiological Data Used for the Forecast for PAH Diagnosed Incident Cases (Based on Registry Data)

Table 6: 7MM Sources of Epidemiological Data Used for the Forecast for PAH Diagnosed Prevalent Cases (Based on Registry Data)

Table 7: 7MM Sources of Epidemiological Data Used for the Classification of Diagnosed Prevalent Cases* According to the NYHA Functional Classes I–IV

Table 8: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of PAH, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2014–2024 (Based on Registry Data)

Table 9: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of PAH, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2014 (Based on Registry Data)

Table 10: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of PAH, All Ages, N (Row %), 2014 (Based on Registry Data)

Table 11: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of PAH, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2014–2024 (Based on Registry Data)

Table 12: 7MM Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of PAH, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2014 (Based on Registry Data)

Table 13: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of PAH, All Ages, N (Row %), 2014 (Based on Registry Data)

Table 14: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of PAH, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2014–2024 (Adjusted for Underestimation)

Table 15: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of PAH, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2014 (Adjusted for Underestimation)

Table 16: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of PAH, All Ages, N (Row %), 2014 (Adjusted for Underestimation)

Table 17: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of PAH, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2014–2024 (Adjusted for Underestimation)

Table 18: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of PAH, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2014 (Adjusted for Underestimation)

Table 19: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of PAH, All Ages, N (Row %), 2014 (Adjusted for Underestimation)

Figures

Figure 1: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of PAH, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2014–2024 (Based on Registry Data)

Figure 2: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of PAH, Both Sexes, N, 2014 (Based on Registry Data)

Figure 3: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of PAH, All Ages, N, 2014 (Based on Registry Data)

Figure 4: 7MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Incidence of PAH (Cases per 100,000 Population), All Ages, by Sex, 2014 (Based on Registry Data)

Figure 5: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of PAH, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2014–2024 (Based on Registry Data)

Figure 6: 7MM Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of PAH, Both Sexes, N, 2014 (Based on Registry Data)

Figure 7: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of PAH, All Ages, N, 2014 (Based on Registry Data)

Figure 8: 7MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Prevalence of PAH (%), All Ages, by Sex, 2014 (Based on Registry Data)

Figure 9: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of PAH Categorized into NYHA Functional Classes (N), All Ages, 2014 (Based on Registry Data)

Figure 10: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of PAH, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2014–2024 (Adjusted for Underestimation)

Figure 11: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of PAH, Both Sexes, N, 2014 (Adjusted for Underestimation)

Figure 12: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of PAH, All Ages, N, 2014 (Adjusted for Underestimation)

Figure 13: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of PAH, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2014–2024 (Adjusted for Underestimation)

Figure 14: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of PAH, Both Sexes, N, 2014 (Adjusted for Underestimation)

Figure 15: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of PAH, All Ages, N, 2014 (Adjusted for Underestimation)

Figure 16: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of PAH Categorized into NYHA Functional Classes (N), All Ages, 2014 (Adjusted for Underestimation)

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