Global Risk Report Quarterly Update – Q1 2024

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Global Risk Report Overview

In Q1 2024, global geopolitical risks are at a tipping point with key hotspots threatening international stability. Conflicts in the Middle East, which contribute to shipping disruptions and inflationary pressures threaten global trade. Meanwhile, recent developments on the Korean peninsula, including Pyongyang’s shift in reunification goals have raised concerns about rising tensions. These dynamics highlight the critical need for strategic diplomacy and risk management efforts to navigate today’s global landscape.

the potential dangers of uncontrollable self-aware AI, deepfakes, weapons automation, and societal polarization highlight the need for responsible AI development.

Furthermore, global temperature records were broken in February 2024, continuing a streak of nine consecutive months of record-breaking temperatures

GCRI – Global Risk Heat Map

GCRI – Global Risk Heat Map

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The global risk report provides the GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) Q1 2024 – Country Ranking, key takeaways, summary, and key highlights. It also showcases the upcoming key events, flashbacks, major risks and recovery, and regional analysis.

Key Regions ·       Asia-Pacific

·       Europe

·       Americas

·       Middle East and Africa

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Global Risk Report - Regional Analysis

In Q1 2024, the GlobalData Country Risk Index fell slightly to 57.21 from 57.31 the previous quarter, owing to improvements in inflation and employment, which boosted consumer sentiment. Emerging markets, excluding China, demonstrate resilience, potentially stemming from efforts in diversification and infrastructure enhancements. Nevertheless, obstacles persist, including elevated borrowing expenses and economic instability in China. Geopolitical tensions, and trade disputes, continue to exert influence, underscoring the need for adept management to maintain global economic stability.

Asia-Pacific: Asia-Pacific region continues to lead global economic growth in 2024. The forecast indicates a persistent and resilient expansion in the APAC region, fueled by strong domestic demand across several emerging Asian economies such as India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Additionally, there will be an increase in East Asian exports supported by a resurgence in electronics exports and new electric vehicles (EVs) from major Asian automotive manufacturing centers.

Europe: Europe maintained its status as the region with the lowest level of risk in Q1 2024. The region’s risk score declined because of the gradual decrease in inflationary pressures and the improvement in the labor market. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that the tightening of monetary policy has affected the availability of bank credit resulting in a slowdown in economic activity.

The Americas: According to the Q1 2024 update, the region sustains its position with the second-highest risk level. Furthermore, consumer spending rose on services and goods, particularly in healthcare and pharmaceuticals. State/local government spending saw an increase in both investment and consumption expenditure. However, inventory investment declined, particularly in retail trade and manufacturing.

Middle East and Africa: The Middle East and Africa (MEA) has been identified as the most high-risk region in Q1 2024. The area continues to grapple with social unrest and geopolitical instability. However, persistent conflicts in Sudan, the Israel-Hamas war, and the potential escalation of the Red Sea crisis, marked by Houthi attacks on oil-carrying commercial vessels, contribute to sustained high downside risks in the region.

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Key Highlights

Global risk: In Q1 2024, the GlobalData Country Risk Index fell slightly to 57.21 from 57.31 the previous quarter, owing to improvements in inflation and employment, which boosted consumer sentiment. Emerging markets, excluding China, demonstrate resilience, potentially stemming from efforts in diversification and infrastructure enhancements. Nevertheless, obstacles persist, including elevated borrowing expenses and economic instability in China. Geopolitical tensions, and trade disputes, continue to exert influence, underscoring the need for adept management to maintain global economic stability.

Asia-Pacific: Despite being the world’s second-lowest risk region, Asia-Pacific’s risk score increased slightly, from 55.61 in Q4 2023 to 56.17 in Q1 2024, primarily due to economic uncertainty in China. The country’s economic outlook has been hampered by challenges such as a persistent property crisis, low consumer spending, rising youth unemployment, and structural economic issues. However, other emerging economies in the region are expanding rapidly as a result of increased domestic activity, rising investments, and a resurgence in tourism. Countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines, and India continue to thrive, supported by positive trends in investment and consumption.

Americas: In Q1 2024, the Americas maintained its position as the second-highest global risk region, with the risk score increasing from 58.53 in Q4 2023 to 58.86. The US economy faces challenges from elevated consumer debt and persistently high interest rates, while Canada grapples with similar issues due to strict monetary policies affecting business sentiment. In Latin America and Caribbean, security concerns persist due to escalating violence associated with narco gangs. Additionally, rising protests in countries like Mexico, Argentina, Cuba, and Haiti raise further concerns about stability in the region.

Europe: Europe maintains its status as the world’s least risky region, with a risk score of 43.78 in Q1 2024, showing a marginal decrease from 44.29 recorded in Q4 2023. The decline in risk score was underpinned by several positive factors, including the easing of inflationary pressures, a strengthening labor market, and a gradual uptick in consumer confidence. However, despite these encouraging trends, uncertainties loom due to ongoing geopolitical tensions. Furthermore, the potential for disruptions to global trade remains a key concern.

Middle East and Africa: The Middle East and Africa retain their status as the region with the highest risk level, with a risk score of 66.93 in Q1 2024. Escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, coupled with the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, pose significant threats to regional stability. Additionally, the region faces challenges exacerbated by a worsening humanitarian crisis. However, there is a slight improvement in the risk score from the previous quarter, with the risk score decreasing from 67.29 in Q4 2023. This improvement is partly attributed to a rebound in Sub-Saharan Africa, driven by declining inflation rates and increased private consumption.

Reasons to Buy

  • Global Risk Report is based on the GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) which is a unique country risk-rating model that determines the existing and future levels of country risk by assessing various qualitative and quantitative factors. The index is formulated to help firms prepare their global business strategies based on historical developments in an economy and their future expectations.
  • The Country Risk Index incorporates the latest available macroeconomics, political, social, technological, environmental, and legal data from a range of recognized national and international statistical sources and incorporates proprietary data from GlobalData Economics Research. The model also features expert analytical judgment from in-house economists and considers their insights and opinions. By applying a robust approach to assessing risk, GlobalData analysts ensure that strategists have an effective tool to assess current trends and risks facing the economies across the globe.

Table of Contents

  • 1. Global Risk Q1 2024 Update – Summary
  • 2. GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) Q1 2024 – Country Ranking
  • 3. GCRI Q1 2024 – Key Takeaways
  • 4. Global Risk (Q1 2024 Update) – Summary
  • 5. Global Risk (Q1 2024 Update) – Key Highlights
  • 6. Flashback – April 2023 to March 2024
  • 7. Upcoming Key Events – April 2024 to March 2025
  • 8. GCRI Q1 2024 Heat Map
  • 9. GCRI – Global Landscape 2024
  • 10. Major Risks and Recovery
  • 11. AI: Leveraging Potential and Confronting Challenges
  • 12. Geopolitical Conflicts
  • 13. Israel-Palestine Conflict
  • 14. Russia-Ukraine War
  • 15. Regional Analysis
  • 16. Regional Analysis – Asia-Pacific
  • 17. Regional Analysis – Europe
  • 18. Regional Analysis – Americas
  • 19. Regional Analysis – Middle East and Africa
  • 20. Methodology & Appendix

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