Global Risk Report: Q1 2026 Update

The thirty-first update of the GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) Q1 2026 ranked Ireland at the top, followed by Switzerland and Singapore. 40 countries were identified in the low-risk zone, 49 countries under medium risk, 59 countries under high risk, and five countries in the very high-risk zone in GCRI Q1 2026.

Global Risk Report is based on GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) which is a unique country risk-rating model that determines the existing and future level of country risk by assessing various qualitative and quantitative factors. The index is formulated to help firms prepare their global business strategies on the basis of historical developments in an economy and also their future expectations.

The Country Risk Index incorporates the latest available macroeconomics, political, social, technological, environmental and legal data from a range of recognized national and international statistical sources, and incorporates proprietary data from GlobalData Economics Research. The model also features expert analytical judgment from in-house economists and takes into account their insights and opinions. By applying a robust approach to assessing risk, GlobalData analysts ensure that strategists have an effective tool to assess current trends and risks facing the economies across the globe.

Key Highlights

Global (GCRI): 54.75/100 in Q1 2026 (vs 52.10 in Q4 2025)

Global risk climbed as the Middle East escalation translated into a prolonged energy shock, increasing input costs and disrupting pricing assumptions across commodities and transport. The shift intensified geoeconomic competition and coincided with global debt reaching fresh peaks, worsening sensitivity to tighter financing conditions. Early-year macroeconomic prints and widely followed risk gauges aligned with a pronounced investor pivot toward risk-off positioning. Additional ambiguity around the US trade policy weakened confidence, amplified cross-asset volatility, and complicated corporate guidance and capital allocation decisions.

Asia-Pacific (APAC): 53.18/100 in Q1 2026 (vs 50.62 in Q4 2025)

APAC’s score rose as energy logistics became a direct vulnerability: conflict-driven strain on shipping lanes, refining capacity, and cargo routing pushed oil and related commodity prices higher, filtering quickly into manufacturing and transport costs. Businesses faced sharper budgeting challenges as import bills and freight rates reset upward. The region also absorbed a trade-policy shock via escalating protectionism, especially tighter US controls and changing tariff decisions, raising compliance burdens, disrupting supplier choices, and increasing earnings uncertainty for exporters with North America exposure.

Americas: 56.71/100 in Q1 2026 (vs 54.39 in Q4 2025)

The increase in risk score in the Americas reflected a fast-moving mix of shocks and policy uncertainty. Escalating conflict involving Iran and disruption risks near the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices sharply higher, reviving inflation concerns. With price pressures proving stubborn, the Federal Reserve signaled caution on rate cuts, extending stress in rate-sensitive sectors such as housing and commercial real estate. Unclear US tariff and trade directions added supply chain and credit uncertainty. Meanwhile, household budgets tightened, and market volatility increased.

Europe: 41.14/100 in Q1 2026 (vs 38.58 in Q4 2025)

Europe’s risk score moved higher as Middle East tensions raised the probability of shipping disruptions that matter directly for regional energy costs, lifting Brent and pushing European gas benchmarks up. The inflation impulse prompted a rethink of how quickly policy easing could proceed, with the ECB and Bank of England reassessing expected rate cuts. Banks turned more conservative, tightening corporate lending, especially for energy-intensive sectors exposed to margin compression. A colder-than-usual winter in Northern and Northwestern Europe accelerated gas storage drawdowns, increasing short-term supply anxiety.

Middle East & Africa (MEA): 64.78/100 in Q1 2026 (vs 61.85 in Q4 2025)

MEA risk rose further as hostilities increased operational and security exposure for banks and insurers, elevating counterparty screening, sanctions/compliance, and claims-related risks. Deal activity slowed as uncertainty delayed contract signings and pushed revenue conversion into later quarters. In several markets, civil unrest and polarization disrupted staffing, branch access, and continuity planning. Threats at maritime chokepoints limited crude flows and amplified oil volatility, while rerouted shipping increased transit times and import costs. Higher energy prices fed inflation pressures and added strain to interest rate settings.

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