Global Macroeconomic Outlook – Q1 2024 Update

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Global Macroeconomic Outlook Report Overview

GlobalData’s Q1 2024 revision resulted in a 0.08 percentage point uptick in the global real GDP growth forecast for 2024, compared to the Q4 2023 update. This positive adjustment is attributed to the steady rise in consumer confidence in major advanced economies and the expected robust performance of emerging economies in Asia-Pacific.

The Global Macroeconomic Outlook Q1 2024 Update Report analyzes and forecasts the key developments in the global economy. The report also provides a complete overview of the economy that will help to understand market dynamics, business potential, and direction of operations.

GDP Growth (Q1 2024) 0.08 Percentage Point
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Key Developments – Global Economy

In 2024, robust real GDP growth in the Asia-Pacific region is poised to be the primary catalyst for global economic expansion. GlobalData’s Q1 2024 projections indicate that the Asia-Pacific is anticipated to contribute more than 60% to the overall global growth. The major contributing countries in APAC are India and China. In addition, GlobalData’s Q1 2024 projections indicate that in 2024, the Americas region is projected to account for more than 15% of global economic growth, followed by Europe the Middle East, and Africa.

However, climate change is taking a toll on the global economy and development. For instance, over the past two decades, extreme weather events globally have incurred an estimated cost of more than $2 trillion, and by 2050 the cost is expected to rise significantly. Enivormetalists and top scientists, including Carlo Buontempo, director of Copernicus Climate Change Service have warned that 2024 is poised to be another record-breaking year for global temperatures owing to rising emissions and the impact of El Nino.

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Key Macroeconomic Indicators Outlook

The APAC region is poised to witness the highest growth rate globally, with an anticipated real GDP growth of more than 3% in 2024. Key economies in the region, such as Vietnam, India, the Philippines, and Indonesia are expected to achieve significant growth rates this year. However, the Americas is expected to experience a deceleration in 2024 owing to the slowdown the in US economy as the policy rate of the Federal Reserve has been historically high that impacted the business sentiment.

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Inflation Rate Forecast

Inflation pressure is projected to ease in 2024 as major economies are experiencing a downward trend in inflation rates. This is attributed to the effects of monetary tightening and reduced energy costs. For instance, the annual US inflation rate rose to 3.4% in December 2023 owing to a slower decline in energy prices and a softer price growth in food, shelter, and new vehicles. As per GlobalData forecasts for 2024, the inflation rate in the US is projected to decline to less than 3% in 2024.

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Global Economic Outlook

The global economy is projected to experience growth in 2024, as the probability of a global recession has diminished. Factors such as prompt recovery investments from the government and reinforcement of effective fiscal policies will accelerate the growth rate globally. However, new challenges arise, particularly in the shape of increasing geopolitical tensions that pose a threat to the fragile recovery.

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Key Highlights

GlobalData in its Q1 2024 update, projects a continuation of the global economic slowdown for the third consecutive year, with an anticipated growth rate of 2.1% in 2024, compared to an estimated 2.4% growth recorded in 2023. The report underscores the intricate interplay of economic factors and geopolitical events shaping the trajectory of the world economy, necessitating strategic considerations for businesses and policymakers alike.

Reasons to Buy

  • GlobalData’s Global Macroeconomic Outlook Report identifies, analyzes, and forecasts key developments in the global economy.
  • The report provides a 360-degree view of the economy that can be used as a strategic tool to understand market dynamics, business potential, and direction of operations.

Table of Contents

  • 1. Foreword
  • 2. Executive summary
  • 3. Key developments – global economy

    • 3.1. Election in 64 nations – summary and impact
    • 3.2. Economic growth projections by region – Q1 2024 update
    • 3.3. Economic growth projections for 2024 heat map
    • 3.4. Economic growth forecast and probability of recession in 2024
    • 3.5. Asia-Pacific region to drive global growth in 2024
    • 3.6. Real GDP growth forecast revision – major economies
    • 3.7. Inflation exhibits a declining trend
    • 3.8. Policy rate (%) – major economies
    • 3.9. Major currencies (LCU per $)
    • 3.10. Energy price exhibits a declining trend
    • 3.11. Business and consumer sentiment exhibits varying paths on a year-to-date basis
    • 3.12. Global supply chain pressure index rises due to attacks in the Red Sea
    • 3.13. World trade volume growth to rebound in 2024 but challenges remain
    • 3.14. Labor market outlook
    • 3.15. Climate change taking a toll on the global economy

  • 4. Key macroeconomic indicators outlook

    • 4.1. GDP growth forecast
    • 4.2. Quarterly GDP trend – major economies
    • 4.3. Inflation rate forecast
    • 4.4. Industrial production trend in major economies
    • 4.5. Unemployment trend in major economies

  • 5. External trade
  • 6. Public finances
  • 7. Stock market trends
  • 8. Equity, M&A deals, and active Jobs
  • 9. Global economic outlook
  • 10. Appendix

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