HER2-Negative Breast Cancer Epidemiology Analysis and Forecast to 2034

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Published: July 14, 2025 Report Code: GDHCER340-25-ST

Report Overview
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Breast cancer is a malignant tumor originating within the breast tissue. The most common type of breast cancer is invasive breast cancer, which originates from the milk ducts and invades the surrounding breast tissue (Cancer Research UK, 2023a). As it progresses, the cancer can metastasize to other parts of the body via the bloodstream and lymphatic system (American Cancer Society, 2022). According to the World Health Organization (WHO), breast cancer was the most common diagnosed cancer in women in 157 out of 185 countries in 2022 and is the leading cause of cancer death in women globally (IARC, 2020; WHO, 2024). Risk factors include prolonged exposure to endogenous/exogenous sex hormones; gene mutations; a family history of breast cancer; being overweight or obese; physical inactivity; high alcohol consumption; early menarche; late menopause; and clinical factors, such as biopsy-confirmed atypical hyperplasia and having a high breast tissue and bone density (IARC, 2020; American Cancer Society, 2022).

Scope

HER2-Negative Breast Cancer: Epidemiology Report and Model provide an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and the global and historical trends of HER2-negative (HER2-) breast cancer in the eight major markets (8MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and urban China).

The report includes a 10-year epidemiology forecast for the diagnosed incident cases of all invasive breast cancer, diagnosed incident cases of HER2- breast cancer, and five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of HER2- breast cancer. The diagnosed incident cases of all invasive breast cancer among women are segmented by age (18 years and older), and hormone receptor (HR) status (HER2-/HR+ and HER2-/HR-). The diagnosed incident cases of HER2- breast cancer among women are segmented by stage at diagnosis (stages I, II, I–II, III, and IV). Five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2- breast cancer are segmented by progression to metastatic disease; stage (stages I–II, III, and IV); menopausal status (HER2-/HR+ only); tumor resection; HR positivity (HER2-/HR+ only); mutations and biomarkers; and other HER2 activating mutations.

Reasons to Buy

HER2- breast cancer Epidemiology series will allow you to –

Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global HER2- breast cancer markets.

Quantify patient populations in the global HER2- breast cancer markets to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.

Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups, HER2- subtypes, breast cancer stages, and genetic groups that present the best opportunities for HER2- breast cancer therapeutics in each of the markets covered.

Understand magnitude of the HER2- breast cancer population by age, HR status, stage, tumor resection and genetic groups.

Table of Contents

List of Tables

List of Figures

About GlobalData

1 HER2-Negative (HER2-) Breast Cancer: Executive Summary

1.1 Catalyst

1.2 Related reports

1.3 Upcoming reports

2 Epidemiology

2.1 Disease background

2.2 Risk factors and comorbidities

2.3 Global and historical trends

2.4 8MM forecast methodology

2.4.1 Sources

2.4.2 Forecast assumptions and methods

2.4.3 Forecast assumptions and methods: diagnosed incident cases of all invasive breast cancer and HER2- breast cancer

2.4.4 Forecast assumptions and methods: diagnosed incident cases of invasive HER2- breast cancer by stage at diagnosis

2.4.5 Forecast assumptions and methods: five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2- breast cancer

2.4.6 Forecast assumptions and methods: five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2- breast cancer by stage

2.4.7 Forecast assumptions and methods: five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2- breast cancer with progression to metastatic disease

2.4.8 Forecast assumptions and methods: five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2-/HR+ breast cancer by menopausal status

2.4.9 Forecast assumptions and methods: five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2- breast cancer with resectable tumors

2.4.10 Forecast assumptions and methods: five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2-/HR+ breast cancer by HR positivity

2.4.11 Forecast assumptions and methods: five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2- breast cancer by mutations and biomarkers

2.4.12 Forecast assumptions and methods: diagnosed five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2- breast cancer with other HER2 activating mutations

2.5 Epidemiological forecast for invasive HER2- breast cancer (2024–34)

2.5.1 Diagnosed incident cases of all invasive breast cancer

2.5.2 Age-specific diagnosed incident cases of all invasive breast cancer

2.5.3 Diagnosed incident cases of invasive HER2-/HR+ breast cancer

2.5.4 Diagnosed incident cases of invasive HER2-/HR- breast cancer

2.5.5 Diagnosed incident cases of invasive HER2-/HR+ breast cancer and invasive HER2-/HR- breast cancer by stage at diagnosis

2.5.6 Five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2-/HR+ breast cancer

2.5.7 Five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2-/HR- breast cancer

2.5.8 Five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2- breast cancer by stage

2.5.9 Five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2- breast cancer with progression to metastatic disease

2.5.10 Five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2-/HR+ breast cancer by menopausal status

2.5.11 Five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2-/HR+ and HER2-/HR- breast cancer by resectable tumors

2.5.12 Five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2-/HR+ breast cancer by HR positivity

2.5.13 Five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2- breast cancer by mutations and biomarkers

2.5.14 Five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2- breast cancer with other HER2 activating mutations

2.6 Discussion

2.6.1 Epidemiological forecast insight

2.6.2 Limitations of the analysis

2.6.3 Strengths of the analysis

3 Appendix

3.1 Bibliography

3.2 Primary research – prescriber survey

3.3 About the authors

3.3.1 Epidemiologist

3.3.2 Reviewers

3.3.3 Vice President of Disease Intelligence and Epidemiology

3.3.4 Global Head of Pharma Research, Analysis, and Competitive Intelligence

Table

Table 1: Summary of newly added data types

Table 2: Summary of updated data types

Table 3: Risk factors and comorbidities for HER2- breast cancer

Table 4: 8MM, five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2-/HR+ breast cancer by mutations and biomarkers, N, women, ages ≥18 years, 2024

Table 5: 8MM, five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2-/HR- breast cancer by mutations and biomarkers, N, women, ages ≥18 years, 2024

Table 6: 8MM, five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2-/HR+ breast cancer with other HER2 activating mutations, N, women, ages ≥18 years, 2024

Table 7: 8MM, five-year prevalent cases of invasive HER2-/HR- breast cancer with other HER2 activating mutations, N, women, ages ≥18 years, 2024

Table 8: High-prescribing physicians surveyed, by country

Figures

Figure 1: 8MM, diagnosed incident cases of invasive HER2- breast cancer, women, N, ages ≥18 years, 2024 and 2034

Figure 2: 8MM, five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2- breast cancer, women, N, ages ≥18 years, 2024 and 2034

Figure 3: 8MM, diagnosed incidence of invasive HER2- breast cancer, women, cases per 100,000 population, ages ≥18 years, 2014–34

Figure 4: 8MM, five-year diagnosed prevalence of invasive HER2- breast cancer, women, %, ages ≥18 years, 2018–34

Figure 5: 8MM, sources used to forecast the diagnosed incident cases of all invasive breast cancer

Figure 6: 8MM, sources used and not used to forecast the diagnosed incident cases of invasive HER2- breast cancer

Figure 7: 8MM, sources used and not used to forecast the diagnosed incident cases of invasive HER2- breast cancer by stage at diagnosis

Figure 8: 8MM, sources used to forecast the five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2- breast cancer

Figure 9: 8MM, sources used to forecast the five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2-/HR+ breast cancer by menopausal status

Figure 10: 8MM, sources used to forecast the five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2- breast cancer by resectable tumors

Figure 11: 8MM, sources used to forecast the five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2-/HR+ breast cancer by HR positivity

Figure 12: 8MM, sources used to forecast the five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2- breast cancer by mutations and biomarkers

Figure 13: 8MM, sources used to forecast the five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2- breast cancer with other HER2 activating mutations in the 8MM

Figure 14: 8MM, diagnosed incident cases of all invasive breast cancer, N, women, ages ≥18 years, 2024

Figure 15: 8MM, diagnosed incident cases of all invasive breast cancer by age, N, women, 2024

Figure 16: 8MM, diagnosed incident cases of invasive HER2-/HR+ breast cancer, N, women, ages ≥18 years, 2024

Figure 17: 8MM, diagnosed incident cases of invasive HER2-/HR- breast cancer, N, women, ages ≥18 years, 2024

Figure 18: 8MM, diagnosed incident cases of invasive HER2-/HR+ breast cancer by stage at diagnosis, N, women, ages ≥18 years, 2024

Figure 19: 8MM, diagnosed incident cases of invasive HER2-/HR- breast cancer by stage at diagnosis, N, women, ages ≥18 years, 2024

Figure 20: 8MM, five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2-/HR+ breast cancer, N, women, ages ≥18 years, 2024

Figure 21: 8MM, five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2-/HR- breast cancer, N, women, ages ≥18 years, 2024

Figure 22: 8MM, five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2-/HR+ breast cancer by stage, N, women, ages ≥18 years, 2024

Figure 23: 8MM, five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2-/HR- breast cancer by stage, N, women, ages ≥18 years, 2024

Figure 24: 8MM, five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2-/HR+ breast cancer with progression to metastatic disease, N, women, ages ≥18 years, 2024

Figure 25: 8MM, five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2-/HR- breast cancer with progression to metastatic disease, N, women, ages ≥18 years, 2024

Figure 26: 8MM, five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2-/HR+ breast cancer by menopausal status, N, women, ages ≥18 years, 2024

Figure 27: 8MM, five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2-/HR+ breast cancer by resectable tumors, N, women, ages ≥18 years, 2024

Figure 28: 8MM, five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2-/HR- breast cancer by resectable tumors, N, women, ages ≥18 years, 2024

Figure 29: 8MM, five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2-/HR+ breast cancer by HR positivity, N, women, ages ≥18 years, 2024

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