HER2-Positive Breast Cancer Epidemiology Analysis and Forecast to 2033

Breast cancer (International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision [ICD-10] codes C50.0–50.9) is a malignant tumor that originates in the breast tissue. Breast cancer cells begin inside the milk ducts of the breast. The earliest form (in situ) is not life-threatening and can be detected in early stages. The most common type of non-invasive (stage 0) types of breast cancer is called ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) (American Cancer Society, 2022; World Health Organization, 2024). DCIS refers to abnormal cells that are present in the breast ducts but have not invaded through duct walls into the surrounding breast tissue (American Cancer Society, 2022). Most breast cancers are invasive tumors that have grown beyond the ducts or lobules of the breast and can metastasize to other parts of the body through the bloodstream and the lymphatic system (American Cancer Society, 2022).
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), breast cancer is the most diagnosed cancer in women and is the leading cause of cancer death in women globally (International Agency for Research on Cancer, 2020; World Health Organization, 2022). Breast cancer accounts for 25.20% of all incident cases of female cancers, making the disease exceedingly prevalent (International Agency for Research on Cancer, 2014). Risk factors for breast cancer include prolonged exposure to endogenous and exogenous sex hormones; gene mutations; a family history of breast cancer; overweight and obesity; physical inactivity; a sedentary lifestyle; high alcohol consumption; early age at menarche (younger than 12 years); late age at menopause (older than 55 years); and clinical factors, such as biopsy-confirmed atypical hyperplasia and having a high breast tissue and bone density (International Agency for Research on Cancer, 2020; American Cancer Society, 2022). Breast cancer is classified based on human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) and hormone receptor (HR) status (American Cancer Society, 2022). This report explores HER2-positive (HER2+) breast cancer, namely, HER2+/HR+ and HER2+/HR- breast cancer.
In the 8MM, the diagnosed incident cases of invasive HER2+/HR+ breast cancer are expected to increase from 107,352 cases in 2023 to 123,580 cases in 2033, at an annual growth rate (AGR) of 1.51%. In 2033, urban China will have the highest number of diagnosed incident cases of invasive HER2+/HR+ breast cancer in the 8MM, with 52,693 diagnosed incident cases, whereas Spain will have the fewest diagnosed incident cases with 4,157 cases. In the 8MM, the diagnosed incident cases of invasive HER2+/HR- breast cancer are expected to increase from 59,598 cases in 2023 to 68,846 cases in 2033, at an AGR of 1.55%. In 2033, urban China will have the highest number of diagnosed incident cases of invasive HER2+/HR- breast cancer in the 8MM, with 33,589 diagnosed incident cases, whereas Spain will have the fewest diagnosed incident cases with 2,100 cases.
In the 8MM, the five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2+/HR+ breast cancer are expected to increase from 490,025 cases in 2023 to 564,254 cases in 2033, at an AGR of 1.51%. In the 8MM, the five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2+/HR- breast cancer are expected to increase from 258,971 cases in 2023 to 299,126 cases in 2033, at an AGR of 1.55%. GlobalData epidemiologists attribute the increase in the diagnosed incident cases and five-year diagnosed prevalent cases to a certain extent with the moderately rising trend in the incidence rates in the 8MM, combined with underlying demographic changes in the respective markets.

Scope

This report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and the global and historical epidemiological trends for HER2+ breast cancer in the eight major markets (8MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and urban China). The report includes a 10-year epidemiology forecast for the diagnosed incident cases of all invasive breast cancer, diagnosed incident cases of HER2+ breast cancer, and five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of HER2+ breast cancer. The diagnosed incident cases of all invasive breast cancer among women are segmented by age (18 years and older), and by HER2+ status (HER2+/HR+ and HER2+/HR-). The diagnosed incident cases of invasive HER2+ breast cancer among women are segmented by stage at diagnosis (stage I–II, stage III, and stage IV), by menopausal status (premenopausal and postmenopausal), by metastatic disease (brain/central nervous system [CNS] metastasis), and by mutations and biomarkers (HLA-A*02 positive, Ki67 expression, MSI/dMMR positive, NTRK expression, PD-L1 expression, RET rearrangements, and TMB-H positive). Five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of invasive HER2+ breast cancer are segmented by stage (stage I–II, stage III, and stage IV), and by mutations and biomarkers (HLA-A*02 positive, Ki67 expression, MSI/dMMR positive, NTRK expression, PD-L1 expression, RET rearrangements, and TMB-H positive). This epidemiology forecast for HER2+ breast cancer is supported by data obtained from country-specific oncology databases, peer-reviewed articles, and population-based studies. The forecast methodology was kept consistent across the 8MM to allow for a meaningful comparison of the forecast diagnosed incident and diagnosed prevalent cases of breast cancer across these markets. The epidemiology model accompanying this report also includes diagnosed incident cases of all invasive breast cancer among men and diagnosed incident cases of invasive breast cancer in men by HER2+ status (HER2+/HR+, and HER2+/HR-).

Key Highlights

• Breast cancer is the second most common cancer in the world and the most common cancer in women worldwide, accounting for 25.2% of all incident cases of female cancers, making the disease exceedingly prevalent. Breast cancer is classified based on human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) and hormone receptor (HR) status (American Cancer Society, 2019). HER2-/HR+ and HER2-/HR- were analyzed in the HER2-negative breast cancer report. This report explores HER2-positive breast cancer, namely, HER2+/HR+ and HER2+/HR- breast cancer.
• GlobalData epidemiologists used age- and sex-specific diagnosed incidence and prevalence rates to forecast the diagnosed incident and prevalent cases, taking into account the significant relationship between age and HER2-positive breast cancer. GlobalData epidemiologists applied country-specific incidence rates of HER2-positive breast cancer wherever available, to each country’s population to obtain the number of estimated diagnosed incident cases.
• The following data describes epidemiology of HER2+/HR+ and HER2+/HR- cases. In 2020, the 8MM had 97,308 diagnosed incident cases of HER2/HR+ breast cancer. This is expected to increase to 113,608 diagnosed incident cases by 2030, at an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 1.68%. In the 8MM, the diagnosed incident cases of HER2+/HR- breast cancer will increase from 53,824 cases in 2020 to 63,106 cases in 2030, at an AGR of 1.72%. This increase is partly attributed to the moderately rising trend in historical incidence in the 8MM, combined with underlying demographic changes in the respective markets. The early diagnosis and development of more effective therapies would improve survival from HER2-positive breast cancer.

Reasons to Buy

The HER2-Positive Breast Cancer epidemiology series will allow you to:

Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global MM market.

Quantify patient populations in the global HER2-Positive Breast Cancer market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.

Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups that present the best opportunities for HER2-Positive Breast Cancer therapeutics in each of the markets covered.