Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Therapeutics – Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2029
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The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) therapeutics market was worth an estimated $22.9bn across the seven major markets (7MM*) in 2019. The market is expected to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2%. Growth in the market will be driven by the entry of injectable therapies that can be administered intramuscularly or subcutaneously.
HIV-infected patients are normally managed with oral therapies. One type of treatment regimen involves the administration of one tablet per day. These single-tablet regimens (STRs) are made up of fixed-dose combinations of individual antiretroviral drugs.
Magdalene Crabbe, MA, Senior Ophthalmology and Infectious Diseases Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The launch of STRs revolutionized the treatment landscape of HIV and met major unmet needs by increasing patient compliance and improving the safety and tolerability profiles of antiretroviral drugs.”
Crabbe adds: “By 2029, other injectable therapies will be available in the market. CytoDyn’s leronlimab and Gilead Sciences’ Lenacapavir are expected to become available in the US and European markets. Additionally, TaiMed’s Trogarzo (ibalizumab), which is an intravenously administered monoclonal antibody, launched in the US in 2018 and in Europe in 2020.”
Cabotegravir-based therapies are projected to generate 79% of the sales of injectable therapeutics in the HIV market in 2029, equating to estimated sales of $1.5bn towards the end of the forecast window.
Most of the drugs entering the market between 2019 and 2029 are expected to be used as salvage or add-on therapies that can be used in combination with first-line drugs. Sales of injectable therapies are expected to exceed $1.8bn in 2029.
The current activities of drug developers in the HIV space reflect a desire to meet the needs of patients who have difficulty swallowing or remembering to take their pills. Addressing these longstanding unmet needs will drive growth in the HIV market.
Although injectable drugs will be well received by patients, a significant number of infected people are unaware of their seropositive status because the disease has few recognizable symptoms in its early stages.
*7MM: The US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK and Japan
Scope
- Overview HIV epidemiological data, including the presence of hepatitis coinfection and incident cases in each of the 7MM.
- Examination of pathophysiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and disease management.
- Annualized forecast of sales of HIV therapeutics in the 7MM.
- Discussion of the impact of COVID-19 on the market.
- Examination of unmet needs, ongoing clinical trials, and profiles of individual marketed drugs.
- Assessment of pipeline drugs, including clinical and commercial aspects of each therapy in development for the treatment of HIV-1 infection in children and adults.
- Review of key market drivers and barriers.
- Discussion of market potential and opportunities for drug developers in the HIV space.
Key Highlights
The global HIV market was worth an estimated $22.9B in 2019. GlobalData projects that this market will expand at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2%, reaching $28B in 2029.
Growth in the market is expected to be facilitated by the entry of non-oral therapies and pre-exposure prophylactic (PrEP) drugs, which will launch in all of the 7MM by the end of the forecast period.
The long-term efficacy of the pharmacologic management of HIV is highly dependent on patient compliance. Poor compliance is a risk factor for a shortened life expectancy and greater chance of contracting opportunistic infections. Pharmaceutical companies are attempting to address this issue by developing injectable therapies that are administered less frequently than market-leading oral drugs which are taken daily and are linked to side effects such as osteoporosis, hepatotoxicity, and kidney dysfunction.
By 2029, the US and 5EU markets will benefit from an influx of therapeutic agents that address different stages of HIV infection, including viral entry, reverse transcription, and integration of viral DNA into the host genome.
There will be several drivers that promote growth in the HIV therapeutics market. One example is the fact that non-oral therapies will launch in the 7MM. These drugs will diversify treatment options for patients. Other market drivers include the use of drugs with low frequencies of administration and the emergence of biologic drugs that have high annual costs of therapy (ACOT) which can be used to treat patients with multidrug-resistant infections.
Major barriers to growth in the HIV market during the forecast period will include the fact that social stigma prevents patients from seeking a diagnosis leading to a low diagnosis rate, increased disease transmission, and delayed initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). GlobalData also expects that lack of compliance among patients will persist, either because of the need to take multiple oral tablets on a daily basis in some treatment regimens, or because of undesirable side effects such as weight gain, changes in bone mineral density, lactic acidosis, or mental disorders.
Furthermore, marketed products such as ViiV Healthcare’s Tivicay (dolutegravir) and Mylan’s Symfi (efavirenz, lamivudine and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate) will lose their patent protection during the forecast period, allowing cheaper generics to erode the sales of branded products.
The US accounted for the vast majority of sales, generating $19.5B in the base year of the forecast window. This equates to a market share of 85.2%. The 5EU markets generated a combined $3.2B in sales in 2019. GlobalData valued the Japanese market at $152.1M in 2019. Sales in all of the 7MM except for Germany are expected to increase over the course of the forecast window. The US is projected to gain market share during the forecast period, generating 85.8% of sales in 2029.
In 2029, the 5EU markets will generate $3.8B. Japan is expected to contribute $225M in sales in the final year of the forecast window.
The PrEP market was valued at $2.6B in 2019. Sales of therapeutics used in PrEP are expected to reach $3.3B in 2029. Drug sales will be limited by the impact of generic erosion.
Reasons to Buy
The report will enable you to:
- Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies, and by identifying the companies with the most robust pipeline.
- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the HIV therapeutics market.
- Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the HIV therapeutics market in the future.
- Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analysing the performance of various competitors.
- Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.
- Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments and strategic partnerships.
Key Questions Answered in This Report
- What were the market leading drugs for HIV in 2019?
- When will the late-stage pipeline products launch in each of the 7MM?
- What are the major clinical and environmental unmet needs in the HIV market?
- What are the key commercial opportunities for pharmaceutical companies developing therapies for HIV?
- What effect has COVID-19 had on the development and administration of HIV therapeutics?
Aelix Therapeutics
BioNTech
Biosantech
BMS
Boehringer Ingelheim
CytoDyn
Dewpoint Therapeutics
Gilead Sciences
GlaxoSmithKline
Starpharma
ImmunityBio
Janssen
Japan Tobacco
Johnson and Johnson
Merck
Mylan
Roche
Shionogi
TaiMed Biologics
Theratechnologies
ViiV Healthcare
AIM ImmunoTech
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