Nigeria PESTLE Insights – A Macroeconomic Outlook Report

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Nigeria PESTLE Insights Report Overview

The GDP of Nigeria was $478 billion in 2022 and was ranked 129th out of 153 nations in the GCRI Q3 2023. The envisaged elimination of the Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) subsidy, coupled with increased revenue will bring down the fiscal deficit in 2023–24. Financing the deficit is expected through borrowing, particularly from concessional sources with extended maturities. Despite heightened oil exports, the current account is forecasted to register a deficit.

Nigeria Macroeconomic Key Sector’s Contribution to the Economy

Nigeria Macroeconomic Key Sector’s Contribution to the Economy

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The Nigeria PESTLE insights report consists of the country’s snapshot, risk factors about the macroeconomic risks, political environment, legal environment, demographic and social structure effectiveness, technology & infrastructure, and natural and geographic aspects that might impact business.

GDP 2022 $478 Billion
Key Landscape ·       Political Landscape

·       Economic Landscape

·       Social Landscape

·       Technological Landscape

·       Environmental Landscape

·       Legal Landscape

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PESTLE Insights of the Nigeria Macroeconomic Outlook Report

Political Landscape: In September 2023, Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu approved a groundbreaking $1 billion defense deal with India, aiming to enhance the Defense Industries Corporation of Nigeria’s (DICON) self-sufficiency in defense production by 40% by 2027. The comprehensive collaboration covers modernizing DICON’s facilities, enabling the local production of firearms, ammunition, armored vehicles, and advanced communication systems. This strategic move not only addresses the Nigerian military’s immediate needs, but also signals a significant step toward reducing the country’s reliance on foreign arms imports, fostering indigenous innovation, and stimulating economic growth. The deal reflects a deepening partnership between Nigeria and India and aligns with Nigeria’s broader objectives of strengthening its defense industry and enhancing national security capabilities.

Economic Landscape: In President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s 2024 budget proposal for Nigeria, a substantial amount has been allocated for the construction and rehabilitation of bridges, roads, and highways. The Ministry of Works is tasked with overseeing various road projects, such as the rehabilitation of the Kabba-Ayere-Isua-Ipele Road and the dualization of the Aba-Ikot Ekpene Road. The budget also provides for counterpart funding for projects like the Lafia bypass and 9th Mile Enugu-Makurdi Road. Additionally, provisions cover culverts, drainage, and emergency contingency funds, with NGN66.702 billion ($157.6 million) allocated to the Federal Road Maintenance Agency (FERMA) for road repairs. FERMA is also granted NGN1 billion ($2.4 million) for the construction of its corporate headquarters.

Nigeria PESTLE Landscapes

Nigeria PESTLE Landscapes

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Scope

In September 2023, the Minister of Works Nigeria revealed that the government requires approximately NGN217 billion ($512.6 million) for the construction of 269 roads across Nigeria. Following an inspection tour of various regions, including the Southwest, Southeast, Southsouth, and parts of the Northcentral and Northwest zones.

Key Highlights

The NGSEINDX Index exhibited a rising trend over the past year. As of November 27, 2023, the index stood at 71,228.8, compared to 47,554.3 on November 27, 2022.

Reasons to Buy

  • Macroeconomic Outlook Report identifies the potential of the country as an investment destination by analyzing the political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental (PESTLE) structure.
  • PESTLE Insights provides a 360-degree view of the economy which can be used as a strategic tool to understand the market dynamics, business potentials, and direction of operations
  • Along with providing the country’s snapshot, the report captures the risk factors about the macroeconomic risks, political environment, legal environment, demographic and social structure effectiveness, technology & infrastructure, and natural and geographic aspects that might impact business.
  • This report also highlights key clusters/cities which contribute significantly to the country’s GDP and population along with major companies’ presence in these areas.

Arik
Oando
GT Bank

Table of Contents

List of Exhibits

Did You Know?

Country Highlights

Key Economic Updates

Country Snapshot

Political Landscape

Economic Landscape

Social Landscape

Technological Landscape

Legal Landscape

Environmental Landscape

Outlook

Table

Exhibit 1: Nigeria’s performance in terms of the country’s risk analysis in comparison to the Middle East and Africa and the world

Exhibit 2: Performance overview (score: 1–100)

Exhibit 3: Broad categories and weights behind the index

Exhibit 4: Nigeria stock exchange index – NGSEIND Index

Exhibit 5: Key sectors’ contribution to the economy

Exhibit 6: FDI inflows, FDI outflows, FDI inward stock and FDI outward stock (2018–22)

Exhibit 7: Greenfield FDI projects and net cross border M&A deals (2018–22)

Exhibit 8: Key infrastructure indicators

Exhibit 9: Real GDP and household consumption growth rate (2018–25f)

Exhibit 10: Real GDP growth rate comparison (2022)

Exhibit 11: Volume of exports and imports growth (2018–25f)

Exhibit 12: Current account balance (2018–25f)

Exhibit 13: Top three commodity exports, % of total exports (2018–22)

Exhibit 14: Mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation export, % of world total (2022)

Exhibit 15: Interest rates (December 2018 – December 2023)

Exhibit 16: Exchange rate and inflation (2018–25f)

Exhibit 17: General government deficit (2018–25f)

Exhibit 18: General government debt (2018–25f)

Exhibit 19: Unemployment rate (2018–25f)

Exhibit 20: Labor force participation rate (2018–25f)

Exhibit 21: Employment by sector (2018–25f)

Exhibit 22: Rural/urban share of total population (1995, 2005, 2015, 2025f)

Exhibit 23: Age-group share of total population (2005, 2015, 2025f)

Exhibit 24: Gender split (1995, 2005, 2015, 2025f)

Exhibit 25: Internet users as a percentage of total population, mobile penetration rate and broadband penetration rate (2022)

Exhibit 26: Number of patents granted per million population (2022)

Exhibit 27: High-technology exports, % of manufactured exports (2021)

Exhibit 28: Rule of law (rankings) 2023

Exhibit 29: Corruption perceptions index (rankings) (2022)

Exhibit 30: Renewable energy capacity (2017–21)

Exhibit 31: CO2 emissions (2017–20)

Figures

List of Figures

Exhibit 1: Nigeria’s performance in terms of the country’s risk analysis in comparison to the Middle East and Africa and the world

Exhibit 2: Performance overview (score: 1–100)

Exhibit 3: Broad categories and weights behind the index

Exhibit 4: Nigeria stock exchange index – NGSEIND Index (December 2021 – December 2022)

Exhibit 5: Nigeria exchange rate (December 2021 – December 2022)

Exhibit 6: Key sectors’ contribution to the economy (2017–24f)

Exhibit 7: Total capital importation (Q1 2021–Q2 2022) and capital importation by type of investment (Q1 2021–Q2 2022)

Exhibit 8: FDI by sector and FDI by country in Q2 2022

Exhibit 9: Key infrastructure indicators

Exhibit 10: Real GDP and household consumption growth rate (2017–24f)

Exhibit 11: Real GDP growth rate comparison (2021)

Exhibit 12: Exports, imports and trade balance (2017–2024f)

Exhibit 13: Current account balance (2017–24f)

Exhibit 14: Top three commodity exports, % of total exports (2018–21)

Exhibit 15: Mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation, % of world’s total (2021)

Exhibit 16: Interest rates (November 2017 – November 2022)

Exhibit 17: Exchange rate and inflation (2017–24f)

Exhibit 18: Public finance (2017–24f)

Exhibit 19: General government debt (2017–24f)

Exhibit 20: Unemployment (2017–24f)

Exhibit 21: Labor force participation rate (2017–24f)

Exhibit 22: Employment by sector (2017–24f)

Exhibit 23: Rural/urban share of total population (1995, 2005, 2015, 2025)

Exhibit 24: Age-group share of total population (1995, 2005, 2015, 2025)

Exhibit 25: Gender split (1995, 2005, 2015, 2025)

Exhibit 26: Internet users as a percentage of total population, mobile penetration rate and broadband penetration rate (2021)

Exhibit 27: Number of patents granted per million people (2021)

Exhibit 28: High-technology exports, % of manufactured exports (2020)

Exhibit 29: Doing business in Nigeria 2020

Exhibit 30: Corruption perception index (rankings) (2021)

Exhibit 31: Renewable energy, installed capacity (2016–20)

Exhibit 32: CO2 emissions (2016–20)

Frequently asked questions

Nigeria PESTLE Insights – A Macroeconomic Outlook Report standard reports
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