Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer – Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2029

1 Table of Contents

1.1 List of Tables

1.2 List of Figures

2 NSCLC: Executive Summary

2.1 The NSCLC Market Will Expand to $32.9B in 2029

2.2 Targeting Large Patient Populations in the First Line, with a Focus on Establishing New Actionable Mutations and Label Expansions for Premium Products into Earlier Lines

2.3 Opportunities Remain for Tackling Primary and Acquired Resistance to Targeted and IO Based Therapies

2.4 First-in-Class Approvals for Novel Actionable Mutations and Targeting Resistance

2.5 What Do Physicians Think?

3 Introduction

3.1 Catalyst

3.2 Related Reports

3.3 Upcoming Related Reports

4 Disease Overview

4.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology

4.1.1 Etiology

4.1.2 Pathophysiology

4.2 Classification or Staging Systems

5 Epidemiology

5.1 Disease Background

5.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities

5.3 Global and Historical Trends

5.4 Forecast Methodology

5.4.1 Sources Used

5.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods

5.4.3 Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC

5.4.4 Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC by Stage at Diagnosis

5.4.5 Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC by Histological Types

5.4.6 Mutations Among Diagnosed Incident Cases of Non-Squamous Cell Carcinoma and Squamous Cell Carcinoma

5.4.7 Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of NSCLC

5.5 Epidemiological Forecast for NSCLC, 2019–2029

5.5.1 Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC

5.5.2 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC

5.5.3 Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC

5.5.4 Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC by Stage at Diagnosis

5.5.5 Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC by Histological Type

5.5.6 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Non-Squamous Cell Carcinoma by Mutations: Genomic Biomarkers, EGFR and KRAS Mutations

5.5.7 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Squamous Cell Carcinoma by Mutations

5.5.8 Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of NSCLC

5.6 Discussion

5.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight

5.6.2 COVID-19 Impact

5.6.3 Limitations of the Analysis

5.6.4 Strengths of the Analysis

6 Disease Management

6.1 Diagnosis and Treatment Overview

6.2 US

6.3 5EU

6.4 Japan

6.5 China

7 Competitive Assessment

7.1 Overview

8 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment

8.1 Overview

8.2 Increased Education, Application, and Refinement of Comprehensive Molecular Testing

8.3 Primary and Acquired Resistance to Immunotherapy

8.4 Personalized Approaches to Tackling Resistance

8.5 Improving Curative Options and Patient Outcomes for Those Without Actionable Mutations

9 Pipeline Assessment

9.1 Overview

9.2 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development

10 Current and Future Players

10.1 Overview

10.2 Trends in Corporate Strategy

10.3 Merck & Co.

10.4 AstraZeneca

10.5 Roche

10.6 Eli Lilly

10.7 BMS

10.8 Pfizer

10.9 Boehringer Ingelheim

10.10 Novartis

10.11 Future players

11 Market Outlook

11.1 Global Markets

11.1.1 Forecast

11.1.2 Drivers and Barriers – Global Issues

11.2 5EU

11.2.1 Forecast

11.2.2 Key Events

11.2.3 Drivers and Barriers

11.3 Japan

11.3.1 Forecast

11.3.2 Key Events

11.3.3 Drivers and Barriers

11.4 US

11.4.1 Forecast

11.4.2 Key Events

11.4.3 Drivers and Barriers

11.5 China

11.5.1 Forecast

11.5.2 Key Events

11.5.3 Drivers and Barriers

12 Appendix

12.1 Bibliography

12.2 Abbreviations

12.3 Methodology

12.3.1 Forecasting Methodology

12.3.2 Diagnosed Patients

12.3.3 Percent Drug-Treated Patients

12.3.4 Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class

12.3.5 Launch and Patent Expiry Dates

12.3.6 General Pricing Assumptions

12.3.7 Individual Drug Assumptions

12.3.8 Generic Erosion

12.3.9 Pricing of Pipeline Agents

12.4 Primary Research – KOLs Interviewed for This Report

12.4.1 KOLs

12.5 Primary Research – Prescriber Survey

12.6 About the Authors

12.6.1 Analyst

12.6.2 Therapy Area Director

12.6.3 Epidemiologist

12.6.4 Managing Epidemiologist

12.6.5 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology

12.6.6 Global Head and EVP of Healthcare Operations and Strategy

12.7 About GlobalData

12.8 Contact Us

12.9 Disclaimer

Table 1: NSCLC: Key Metrics in the 8MM

Table 2: Histologies and Subtypes in NSCLC

Table 3: TNM descriptors used in the AJCC/IASLC Lung Cancer Staging System

Table 4: Overview of the AJCC/IASLC staging system for NSCLC.

Table 5: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for NSCLC

Table 6: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC by Stage at Diagnosis, Ages ≥18 Years, Both Sexes, N, 2019

Table 7: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Non-Squamous Cell Carcinoma by Immunotherapy and Genomic Biomarkers, Ages ≥18 Years, Both Sexes, N, 2019

Table 8: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Squamous Cell Carcinoma by Mutations, Ages ≥18 Years, Both Sexes, N, 2019

Table 9: Biomarker Testing Rates (%) in Nonsquamous NSCLC in 2019

Table 10: Treatment Guidelines for NSCLC in the 8MM

Table 11: Country Profile – US

Table 12: Country Profile – 5EU

Table 13: Country Profile – Japan

Table 14: Country Profile – China

Table 15: Leading Treatments for NSCLC, 2019

Table 16: Merck’s NSCLC Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 17: AstraZeneca’s NSCLC Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 18: Roche’s NSCLC Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 19: Eli Lilly’s NSCLC Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 20: BMS’s NSCLC Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 21: Pfizer’s NSCLC Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 22: Boehringer Ingelheim’s NSCLC Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 23: Novartis’ NSCLC Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 24: Future players in NSCLC Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 25: NSCLC Market – Global Drivers and Barriers, 2019–2029

Table 26: Key Events Impacting Sales for NSCLC in the 5EU, 2019–2029

Table 27: NSCLC Market – Drivers and Barriers in the 5EU, 2019–2029

Table 28: Key Events Impacting Sales for NSCLC in Japan, 2019–2029

Table 29: NSCLC Market – Global Drivers and Barriers in Japan, 2019–2029

Table 30: Key Events Impacting Sales for NSCLC in the US, 2019–2029

Table 31: NSCLC Market – Drivers and Barriers in the US, 2019–2029

Table 32: Key Events Impacting Sales for NSCLC in China, 2019–2029

Table 33: NSCLC Market – Global Drivers and Barriers in China, 2019–2029

Table 34: Key Historical and Projected Launch Dates for NSCLC

Table 35: Key Historical and Projected Patent Expiry Dates for NSCLC

Table 36: High-Prescribing Physicians (non-KOLs) Surveyed, By Country

Figure 1: Global Sales Forecast by Country for NSCLC in 2019 and 2029

Figure 2: Analysis of the Company Portfolio Gap in NSCLC During the Forecast Period

Figure 3: Competitive Assessment of the Late-Stage Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects to be Licensed for the Treatment of NSCLC During the Forecast Period

Figure 4: 8MM, Diagnosed Incidence of NSCLC, Men, Ages ≥18 Years, 2009–2029

Figure 5: 8MM, Diagnosed Incidence of NSCLC, Women, Ages ≥18 Years, 2009–2029

Figure 6: 8MM, Sources Used and Not Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC

Figure 7: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC by Stage at Diagnosis

Figure 8: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC by Histology Types

Figure 9: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Incident Cases of Non-Squamous Cell Carcinoma and Squamous Cell Carcinoma by PD-L1, TMB, EGFR, KRAS, BRAF V600E, and MET Exon 14 Mutations

Figure 10: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Incident Cases of Non-Squamous Cell Carcinoma Exon 18, Exon 19, Exon 20, Exon 21, KRAS G12C, KRAS G12D, KRAS G12V, ALK, BRAF, ROS1, RET, NTRK1, and HER2 Mutations

Figure 11: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Incident Cases of Squamous Cell Carcinoma by FGFR1, PIK3CA, DDR2, PTEN, ALK, ROS1, BRAF, and RET Mutations

Figure 12: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of NSCLC

Figure 13: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2019

Figure 14: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC, by Sex, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2019

Figure 15: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC by Age, Both Sexes, N, 2019

Figure 16: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of NSCLC by Histological Type, Ages ≥18 Years, Both Sexes, N, 2019

Figure 17: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of NSCLC, Ages ≥18 Years, Both Sexes, N, 2019

Figure 18: An Overview of the Treatment Algorithm in Non-invasive and Invasive NSCLC

Figure 19: The Current Paradigm for Biomarker-Driven Treatment in NSCLC

Figure 20: Unmet Needs and Opportunities in Non-small Cell Lung Cancer

Figure 21: Overview of the Development Pipeline in NSCLC

Figure 22: Key Phase II/III Trials for the Promising Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects to be Licensed for NSCLC in the 8MM During the Forecast Period

Figure 23: Competitive Assessment of the Late-Stage Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects to be Licensed for the Treatment of NSCLC During the Forecast Period

Figure 24: Analysis of the Company Portfolio Gap in NSCLC During the Forecast Period

Figure 25: Global (8MM) Sales Forecast by Country for NSCLC in 2019 and 2029

Figure 26: Sales Forecast by Class for NSCLC in the 5EU in 2019 and 2029

Figure 27: Sales Forecast by Class for NSCLC in Japan in 2019 and 2029

Figure 28: Sales Forecast by Class for NSCLC in the US in 2019 and 2029

Figure 29: Sales Forecast by Class for NSCLC in China in 2019 and 2029