Net Present Value Model: Paxlovid
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Overview
Evaluating the value of drugs is a complicated practice and requires a deep knowledge of the drug itself, the market currently and in the future, knowledge of cash inflows and outflows and the potential success rates for each stage of drug development. GlobalData has done all of this work for you, leveraging its gold standard Drugs Intelligence database to create high-value NPV models for purchase on a drug-by-drug basis.
Drug Operating Profit Model
Paxlovid Drug Details
Nirmatrelvir and ritonavir (Paxlovid / Skyvira) are oral antiviral agents in which nirmatrelvir tablets co-packaged with ritonavir tablets. It is formulated as tablets, coated tablets, film coated tablets for oral route of administration. It is indicated for the treatment of mild-to-moderate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in adults and pediatric patients (12 years of age and older weighing at least 40 kg) with positive results of direct severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral testing, and who are at high risk for progression to severe COVID-19, including hospitalization or death. Paxlovid is indicated for the treatment of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in adults who do not require supplemental oxygen and who are at increased risk for progressing to severe COVID-19. Paxlovid is indicated for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) for adults and children aged 12 years or older and weighing 40 kg or more. Paxlovid is indicated for the treatment of adults with mild to moderate novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) with high risk factors for progression to severe disease. Paxlovid is indicated for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID- 19) in adults 18 years of age and older, who do not require initiation of supplemental oxygen due to COVID-19 and are at increased risk of progression to hospitalisation or death.Paxlovid is under development for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The drug candidate is a combination of nirmatrelvir [PF-07321332] tablets and ritonavir tablets. Low dose of ritonavir is given to boost the pharmacokinetics of the PF-07321332. It is administered through oral route and acts by targeting SARS-CoV-2 3C-like protease and HIV 1 Retropepsin.
Report Coverage
GlobalData takes into account factors including patent law, known and projected regulatory approval processes, cash flows, potential applicable patients, drug margins, company expenses, and pricing estimates. Combining these data points with GlobalData’s world class analysis creates high value models that companies can use to help in evaluation processes for each drug or company.
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Reasons to Buy
- Better understand the quantitative value of a specific drug
- Create or support internal NPV models to improve accuracy
- Understand the profit a drug is expected to make, taking into account revenue and cost forecasts leveraging public and proprietary data sets.
Frequently asked questions
- All drug sales and forecasts within NPV Model are calculated in our proprietary company based models . In these models, Analyst Consensus forecasts are built by using company-specific broker reports to create the sales forecasts for each Drug and Segment.
- Sales and forecasts are not indication-specific where drugs are approved , or in development, for multiple indications. Please refer to GlobalData’s Disease Analysis reports for indication-specific sales forecasts.
- Risk-adjusted NPVs use GlobalData’s LoA and PTSR for the indication in the highest development stage. Please refer to the Likelihood of Approval methodology for more details on this content.
GlobalData’s NPV Model is a premium model providing a fully-interactive forecasting and valuation tool, driven by Analyst Consensus estimates, enabling users to analyze and customize valuations for pharmaceutical assets including drugs or segments. The tool provides 17-year drug forecasts from companies with sales forecast data in the pharmaceutical industry, including established global firms and emerging biotechs, which allows access to critical information to facilitate strategic decision making around pharmaceutical assets
The NPV Model includes a forecasted Revenue Model, followed by a proprietary Patent Expiry Model, Operating Profit Model, Net Profit (apply Tax rate) and Discounted Cash Flow (apply Discount rates), to derive Net Present Value (NPV) for a chosen pharmaceutical asset
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