As of Q4 2025, blue hydrogen accounts for 77% of active low-carbon hydrogen capacity, with blue hydrogen projects totaling 1.7mtpa of hydrogen capacity and 9.6 million tons of CCS capacity. This has been facilitated by the relative ease of retrofitting existing grey hydrogen production with CCUS technology compared to developing greenfield projects. Furthermore, announced and planned projects account for an added 12.0mtpa of hydrogen capacity and almost 100 million tons of CCS capacity. Compared to H2 2025, blue hydrogen pipeline capacity has reduced by around 1.8mtpa, largely due to the shelving of ExxonMobil’s 900ktpa Baytown Blue Hydrogen Project. The reduction in pipeline capacity was also driven by CF Industries commencing operations at its 299ktpa Donaldsonville Blue Hydrogen Project in July 2025.
The shelving of ExxonMobil’s Baytown Hydrogen Project has significantly altered the landscape of blue hydrogen leaders. The project was the second-largest blue hydrogen project in development globally and had made notable progress by securing ADNOC as an equity partner for a 35% stake and signing an offtake agreement with Marubeni for approximately 250ktpa of low-carbon ammonia in May 2025. The company has since announced that a key driver for shelving the project was that it had been unable to sign offtake agreements for the remaining output due to the high costs of blue hydrogen and demand uncertainty in key markets, such as Europe. It also stated that the Trump administration’s accelerated phase-out of the 45V tax credit had hindered the project.
Yet, there have also been recent examples of progress within the blue hydrogen market. Samsung announced it had broken ground on the Wabash Low-Carbon Ammonia Plant in the US, which would convert coal into 500ktpa of blue ammonia. This follows the US Department of Energy’s Loan Program Office announcing it had closed a $1.5 billion loan to support the project in October 2025.
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