In Q4 2025, the announced capacity increased at a marginally faster rate compared to the previous quarter, with approximately 361ktpa of green hydrogen being announced. Furthermore, across the quarter, 24 projects were announced, compared to the 17 projects across Q3. This highlights a growing trend within the green hydrogen market to focus on consolidating pipeline capacity through a shift away from large-scale projects towards a greater volume of smaller-scale projects. Given the significant headwinds faced by the green hydrogen market, smaller-scale projects mitigate against the risk and funding challenges associated with developing large-scale projects. They can also be constructed in closer proximity to end-users, reducing the need for extensive storage and transport infrastructure.
However, the cost-competitiveness of green hydrogen compared to grey hydrogen continues to be a significant hurdle for producers, with high costs leading to difficulties in securing offtakers. At present, green hydrogen is around 2-4 times more expensive than grey hydrogen, deterring end-users from paying the premium across long-term contracts. This is impacting the development of green hydrogen projects. For example, US-based project developer World Energy GH2 announced it had shelved its 1.2GW Nujio’qonik green hydrogen and ammonia project in Canada after failing to find any offtakers in both domestic and export markets.
The challenging market conditions for green hydrogen are impacting the profitability of upstream electrolyser manufacturers. German electrolyser firm Thyssenkrupp Nucera reported a net profit of €4.6 million for its 2025 financial year, which was less than half the €11.4 million it had posted the year before. This was due to a 93% collapse in orders as project developers hesitated to commit to final investment decisions under the current economic and regulatory conditions.
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