In Q1 2026, announced capacity increased at a slower rate than the previous quarter, with only ~84ktpa of green hydrogen announced. This was driven by a downturn in project activity, with 10 projects announced across the quarter, compared to 24 in Q4 2025. Developers, lenders, and investors have become increasingly pragmatic about the economic viability of green hydrogen projects amid current market conditions. However, rising natural gas prices could narrow the cost gap between low-carbon and grey hydrogen, potentially increasing sector interest for the remainder of 2026. Overall, investment in green hydrogen remains a long-term strategy, based on falling renewable energy project costs, increasing electrolyser efficiency, and the need to de-link from volatile oil and gas supply chains.
China remains the main driver of the green hydrogen market, underpinned by its dominance in electrolyser manufacturing, which accounts for an estimated 60% of global capacity. Even as key target markets introduce protectionist measures, such as the EU’s new “Made in EU” requirements under the Industrial Accelerator Act (March 2026), China is moving to reinforce its global position. In March 2026, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched a 2026 to 2028 programme centered on three measures: improving efficiency and reliability, industrial-scale applications, and new technical standards to further support the domestic electrolyser manufacturing sector.
Even when production is feasible, green hydrogen growth hinges on stronger demand signals and bankable offtake agreements. Although this is a major barrier hindering the growth of the green hydrogen market, there are signs of long-term demand, particularly in industries with established hydrogen consumption. In March 2025, RWE announced a legally binding purchase agreement to supply 30ktpa of green hydrogen to TotalEnergies over 15 years, from 2030 to 2044, to help decarbonise TotalEnergies' Leuna refinery in Germany.
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