Q2 2026 represented a largely stable quarter for the low-carbon hydrogen market, but with some positive data signals. Over the quarter, the database observed a net increase of 972ktpa across green hydrogen and derivative projects. Across the quarter, 6 new green projects were also announced, accounting for approximately 106ktpa. Another data highlight includes green capacity currently in the construction phase experiencing a percentage increase of 16.3% from the previous quarter, signalling a level of project maturation within the existing pipeline.
China remains the main driver of the green hydrogen market, underpinned by its dominance in electrolyser manufacturing, which accounts for an estimated 60% of global capacity. Developments from the quarter include the State Council approving the 15th Five-Year Plan, which reinforced hydrogen’s strategic role for decarbonizing heavy industry by acting as a substitute for coal and oil across the transport and chemical sectors.
The European hydrogen market landscape is also shifting, with over €1bn being awarded to 9 projects in the latest European Hydrogen Bank Auction in May 2026. Despite the announcement for a fourth hydrogen bank auction, sentiment in the market will be powerfully influenced by the outcome of the review of the Additionality Delegated Act, which has drawn strong criticism from leading players and industry associations for being overly stringent.
Despite a number of positive developments, announcements of large-scale project stalls and cancellations continue to plague the sector. A recent casualty includes BP’s official cancellation of the 105MW H₂Kwinana renewable hydrogen project in Western Australia in June 2026, following its failure to secure financing from the Australian Government’s Hydrogen Headstart Programme.
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