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Explore Netherlands's latest macroeconomic trends and forecasts to inform business strategy and pinpoint opportunities and risks

The Netherlands: Macroeconomic Country Outlook

GlobalData forecasts the real GDP of the Netherlands to grow by 4.4% in 2022, almost all COVID-19 restrictions are lifted to support the resumption of economic activities.
The Netherlands was ranked 20th out of 136 nations in the GCRI Q1 2022.
In 2022, the household consumption expenditure is forecast to expand by 2.7% and at an average annual rate of 2.7% over 2023–2024 as the economic recovery strengthens.

The Netherlands was considered the eighth freest economy among 184 nations, with a score of 79.5 out of 100 according to the Heritage Foundations’ Index of Economic Freedom (2022). Moreover, the country secured the fifth rank among 45 countries in the Europe region, and its overall score is above the regional and world averages.

Key Findings

Improving international relations: The Netherlands is a strong advocate of European integration and safety and is a participant in the United Nations and the EU. The country is also a participant in other multinational organizations such as NATO (the North Atlantic Treaty Organization), the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the Council of Europe (CoE), the Organization for Economic Corporation and Development (OECD) and the World Trade Organization (WTO). The Netherlands is one of the signatories, along with other 25 European members, of a treaty that allows open borders and free movement of people and goods across those borders. In April 2022, institution from Nigeria and the Netherlands signed a partnership to boost crop cultivation techniques. In March 2022, the Netherlands and the UAE signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to boost 50 years of trade and economic relations.
The Netherlands ranks 42nd out of 190 countries in the World Bank’s Doing Business ranking in 2020: The Netherlands’ score in doing business is 76.1 out of 100, below that of France (76.8), Finland (80.2) and Denmark (85.3) in 2020. It takes 3.5 days to start a business in the Netherlands, compared to the OECD high-income countries average of 9.2 days. The country ranked first in terms of trading across borders and seventh in terms of resolving insolvency out of 190 nations in 2020. According to the International Trade Administration, the country is a key center within the global business network.
Economic growth to slow down in 2022: According to the Central Bank of the Netherlands, the economy is projected to expand at a slower pace of 3.5% in 2022 and 1.5% in 2023, due to higher inflationary pressures and the impact of Ukraine conflict. According to GlobalData, the Netherlands’ real GDP grew by 4.8% during 2021 as restrictions were partially lifted and economic activity resumed. According to the OECD, the economy grew by 6.4% (Y-o-Y) in Q4 2021. compared to -3.1% (Y-o-Y) in Q4 2020. The government announced fiscal stimulus measures worth 16.8% of GDP in March 2020.
Soaring manufacturing sector: According to the Statistics Netherlands (CBS), manufactured products output grew by 25.9% on an annual basis in March 2022, compared to 7.1% in March 2021. The sector witnessed the largest increase since the start of statistics in 1981, due to rise in energy prices. The price of crude oil hiked by more than 88% on May 2, 2022, compared to same month in last year. Output prices of the chemical industry are generally linked to crude oil price developments. Therefore, price of chemical products expanded by 38.5% Y-o-Y in March 2022. During the same month, prices in almost all manufacturing industries increased on an annual basis.
The Netherlands’s stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: On February 27, 2022, the Netherlands allocated $23.7 million for victims of war in Ukraine. On March 7, 2022, the country provided another $17.7 million emergency assistance for war victims in Ukraine. Moreover, the country assigned $1.8 million to support work of the Red Cross in Ukraine and in neighboring countries where refugees are fleeing. In March 2022, the Dutch Ministry of Education announced to close collaborations of universities in the Netherlands with institutions in Russia and Belarus in response to the invasion of Ukraine.
5G rollout and growing ICT industry: The Netherlands is marketed as the digital gateway to Europe. According to GlobalData, internet access reached 94.1% of total population in 2021. The Netherlands was the fifth highest country with internet access (% of total household) among OECD nations in 2021. In August 2021, Dutch telecommunications firm Delta, owned by Swedish private equity investor EQT, announced plans to make an investment of $2.4 billion to build out its fiber optic network in the Netherlands through 2024. In March 2022, under the Recovery Assistance for Cohesion and the Territories of Europe (REACT-EU), the East Netherlands program received support of $71.3 million for innovative technologies, processes, and investments, which aim to reinforce the innovation eco-system. In March 2022, Globe Telecom expanded its 5G roaming footprint to the Netherlands.

Key Fundamentals

Sectoral Outlook

Positive outlook for retail sector over next year (2022): In the first quarter of 2021, several deals have also been reached, such as the acquisition of Unlimited Footwear Group by Jascom (Braend). Just Eat Takeaway.com (formerly known as Takeaway.com Holding), the Netherlands-based provider of food delivery services, raised EUR600 million ($725.7 million) through offering convertible bonds due 2025. In 2022, the household consumption expenditure is forecast to expand by 3.8% and at an average annual rate of 3.2% over 2022–2023 as the economic recovery strengthens. The rising real household consumption expenditure is likely to boost the retail sector. E-commerce is also expected to grow, due to expansion of mobile/internet penetration in the country.
Positive outlook for construction sector: The Dutch construction industry had been growing at a fast pace prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. In April 2021, the government anticipated to provide EUR20 billion ($23.7 billion) for the next five years to invest in knowledge development, transport infrastructure and research, development and innovation. On December 15, 2021, the new Dutch government announced to allocate EUR1.3 billion ($1.5 billion) to make up for backlogs in the maintenance of Dutch infrastructure. By 2028, the Government of the Netherlands would allocate EUR25 billion ($29.6 billion) to make investment in infrastructure of the country, which aims the construction of new roads to reduce increasing pressure on roads, railroads, and waterways, and in air.
Support for renewable sector in the Netherlands: In March 2022, the Dutch government announced to allocate EUR13 billion ($15.4 billion) for the 2022 SDE++ program for large scale renewable energy projects. In April 2022, the Netherlands and Nigeria announced to boost trade ties in the areas of horticulture, circular economy and renewable energy technologies. From April 14 to May 12, 2022, the Dutch government would invite applications for permits for two new offshore wind farms for projects up to 700MW each in the North Sea of the country. The new wind farm would get operational by 2025–26. According to a report by the Dutch association of national-regional electricity and gas network operators, the country could reach between 38GW and 125GW of total installed solar capacity by 2050. According to GlobalData, the Netherlands is on track to phase out the use of coal for power generation by 2030, which notes that the country’s coal power capacity is expected to decline from 3.31 GW in 2020 to 3.18 GW in 2025, before being phased out altogether in 2030. The government also plans to phase out nuclear power by 2033. As of August 2021, the country had only one operational nuclear power reactor having a capacity of 482 MW, which is owned and operated by Pzem Energy BV and RWE AG. This reactor is expected to be decommissioned in 2033.

GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) - Q4 2021

The Netherlands was ranked 20th out of 136 nations in the GCRI Q1 2022. The country’s score is in the very low risk nations band (below 30). The Netherlands‘ overall risk score (25.0) is lower than the West Europe (27.2) and the world average (43.5) in GCRI Q1 2022.

Stable social, political and macroeconomic conditions have led to such high rankings in the GCRI index. Even though the crisis in 2020 added to the country’s risk score, it has performed better than many of its peers.

GCRI Methodology

GlobalData’s unique Country Risk Model determines the existing and future level of country risk by assessing various qualitative and quantitative factors. The index is designed to help firms formulate their global business strategies based on historical developments in an economy.

The Country Risk Index incorporates the latest available macroeconomics, political, social, technological, environmental, and legal data from a range of recognized national and international statistical sources, and also proprietary data from GlobalData. Western European countries in this publication include Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, The U.K., Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Sweden, the U.K., Luxembourg, Iceland, and Switzerland.

About the Report

GlobalData Macroeconomic Outlook report is designed to provide detailed macro-economic analysis which will help clients in their business planning, investment and strategic decisions, and analysis. It also provides a quick view of the current situation and the risk score of the country in comparison to region and world based on the proprietary risk framework. The report also highlights key strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats in each of the pillars of PESTLE, economic growth prospects, and key events which can impact the country’s future outlook.

More details: Macroeconomic Outlook Report: The Netherlands

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