Poland seeks to strengthen its military readiness and contribute more to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) following Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine and mounting concern over the future of transatlantic security cooperation. Seeking to deter an emboldened autocracy in Russia, Poland will increase defense spending from $36.4 billion in 2024 to $48.5 billion in 2029, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s latest report, “Poland Defense Market Size, Trends, Budget Allocation, Regulations, Acquisitions, Competitive Landscape and Forecast to 2029,” reveals that Poland’s defense spending is forecasted to rise to $39.9 billion in 2025.

Fox Walker, Defense Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Following Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, Poland nearly doubled its defense budget and has continued to expand on this commitment to European security. For at least the rest of the decade, Poland will spend at least 4.3% of its GDP on defense each year, which would place it on par with the US and put it significantly higher than the vast majority of all other NATO member countries.”

Poland’s armed forces are undergoing a massive modernization program. The highest spending is occurring in the sectors of missiles and missile defense systems, artillery systems, and military land vehicles. Over the next decade, some of Poland’s largest investments are for the Patriot air defense system ($14.1 billion), the Borsuk infantry fighting vehicle ($5.7 billion), and the Homar-A multiple launch rocket system HIMAR variant ($4.0 billion).

Walker continues: “It is unsurprising to see the Polish military make investments in these sectors and programs, as similar systems have proven successful in Ukraine. Moreover, many of these programs include a domestic component, which is boosting the Polish economy and strengthening defense supply chains.”

In addition to Poland’s acquisition efforts, the Polish army is making substantial investments in its military personnel. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has urged other countries who do not meet NATO guidelines to spend more on defense, claiming in March 2024 that Europe is entering a “prewar” era. GlobalData forecasts that Poland will spend $17.8 billion on military personnel by the end of the decade.

Walker concludes: “Poland aims to become NATO’s largest land army in Europe by eventually achieving a total force strength of 300,000. A military expansion of this size, combined with Poland’s substantial acquisition investments, will make Poland an armed force to be reckoned with.”