The Chinese make-up market will expand to CNY74.6 billion ($11.7 billion) by 2026, registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.4% over 2021–26, even as the sporadic Omicron outbreaks continue disrupting retail operations, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s report, ‘China Make-Up Market – Assessment and Forecasts to 2026,’ reveals that the eye make-up category is set to register the fastest value CAGR over 2021–26, followed by the lip make-up category.

Bobby Verghese, Consumer Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The COVID-19 lockdowns in Shanghai and Beijing undermined demand for color cosmetics in China in the first half of 2022. The strict lockdowns disrupted distribution and logistics of cosmetics products, and triggered a loss of income, thereby stifling overall consumer spending on beauty products.”

“Subsequently, the Chinese government relaxed its stringent Zero-COVID policy in H2 2022 to stimulate economic growth and quell public resentment. However, with Omicron infections on the rise, consumers began cocooning longer at home, and donning protective face masks in outdoor areas, thereby sapping demand for color cosmetics. However, consumers made use of eye make-up products such as eyeliners and eye shadows, as their eyes remained exposed above the mask.”

​The per capita expenditure (PCE) on make-up in China increased from $1.2 in 2016 to $2.8 in 2021. While this surpassed the regional average of $2.4, it lagged the global average of $3.9.

E-retailers were the leading distribution channel in the Chinese make-up market in 2021, followed by department stores, and hypermarkets & supermarkets. L’Oreal, Carslan, and The Estee Lauder Companies were the top three companies in the Chinese make-up market in value terms, and Maybelline and L`Oreal Paris were the leading brands in 2021.

Verghese concludes: “As all pandemic controls are lifted, the revival of on-site work and education, social gatherings, and celebrations will bolster make-up usage. With consumer footfall and impulse purchases accelerating at beauty retailers, China’s PCE on make-up is projected to increase to $4.1 by 2026.

“New product launches with natural and safe formulations, improved functionality, and sustainable packaging will attract consumers. Additionally, the adoption of virtual make-up apps and ecommerce portals will surge in the post-pandemic years. Moreover, underpinned by the ‘guachao’ or ‘China Chic’ nationalism trend, Chinese beauty brands are gaining an edge over multinational brands through 2026.”