Easing pandemic control measures, particularly the mandate on masks, and a growing interest in natural cosmetics will sustain the demand for make-up in Japan in the coming years. However, the emergence of new COVID-19 variants, and surging inflation will constrain consumer spending on color cosmetics in the immediate future. As a result, the Japanese make-up market will expand by a marginal compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.1% over 2021–26 to reach JPY531.8b ($5.5 billion) by 2026, forecasts GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s report, ‘Japan Make-up – Market Assessment and Forecasts to 2026’ reveals that the eye make-up category will register the fastest value CAGR over 2021–26, followed by the lip make-up category.

Suneera Joseph, Consumer Analyst at GlobalData, comments : “The COVID-19 related lockdowns and strict restrictions stifled consumer movement, leaving a significant impact on the sales of make-up products in 2021. However, the lifting of restrictions in H2 2022 and the subsequent resumption of out-of-home activities and social gatherings gradually revived sales.

“Eye make-up sales rose as consumers continued to use face masks in indoor environments and outdoor. Online sales of cosmetics also surged as more companies started developing and augmenting their direct-to-consumer (D2C) platforms. Moreover, market leaders leveraged augmented reality (AR) apps to provide a personalized shopping experience for digitally-savvy consumers.”

The per capita expenditure (PCE) on make-up in Japan increased from $14.7 in 2016 to $19 in 2021, surpassing the regional average of $2.4 and the global average of $3.9. Japan’s PCE on make-up will surge to $22.1 by 2026.

Kao Corporation, Shiseido Company, and L’Oréal S.A. were the top three companies in the Japanese make-up sector in 2021, and Shiseido and Kose were the leading brands. Parapharmacies/drugstores was the leading distribution channel, followed by eRetailers, and hypermarkets & supermarkets.

Joseph concludes: “As the economic and social activities normalize, the demand for novel color cosmetics will accelerate in Japan over the forecast period. Natural and organic beauty products are gaining traction due to rising consumer concerns about the long-term harm caused by chemical formulations with petroleum-based chemical additives, allergens, and pesticides.

“The renewed focus on holistic health and wellness in light of the pandemic has accentuated the trend towards free-from make-up. Going forward, the improving consumer sentiment and the launch of innovative natural and safe formulations will lend impetus to the Japanese make-up market. However, spiraling inflation and emergence of new COVID-19 variants can derail overall consumer spending on color cosmetics.”