Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a crowded and competitive landscape with multiple ‘me-too’, generic and biosimilar drugs entering the market. Growth will be primarily driven by the launch of novel blockbuster therapies and an increasing diagnosed prevalent population across the nine major markets (9MM)*, notes GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

According to GlobalData’s latest report, ‘Type 2 Diabetes Market Size and Trends’, the T2D market in the 9MM will reach $136.2 billion in 2029 compared to the $45.9 billion seen in 2019, with drug sales almost doubling at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.5%.

Akash Patel, Pharma Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Drivers of growth for the T2D market will include the launch of once-weekly basal insulins, which include Novo Nordisk’s insulin icodec and combinatorial insulin icosema (icodec + semaglutide), both forecast to launch in 2024, and Eli Lilly’s Basal Insulin-fc, forecast to launch in 2026.”

The development of drugs that address these unmet needs can be identified in the pipeline, with the most significant innovative therapy recently launching to market. Eli Lilly’s GLP-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA)/gastric inhibitory polypeptide (GIP) receptor agonist Mounjaro (tirzepatide) immediately obtained a significant market share across the US, 5EU**, and Japan. In addition, once-weekly basal insulins are likely to gain significant market uptake due to efficacy that is comparable, or superior, to existing basal insulins such as glargine and lispro, and improved patient compliance from reduced frequency of administration.

Patel adds: “Due to more novel therapies, generics and biosimilars being approved since 2019, leading companies in the T2D market, such as Victoza, Januvia and Lantus, have witnessed an erosion of their market shares. Victoza’s market share is suffering mainly from the continued growth of Lilly’s once-weekly GLP-1 Trulicity (dulaglutide), as well as the rapid growth of Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic (semaglutide) and Rybelsus (oral semaglutide).”

The launch of generic sitagliptin therapies, and physicians’ preference for sodium-glucose linked transporter-2 inhibitor (SGLT-2I) therapies such as Farxiga (dapagliflozin) and Jardiance (empagliflozin) due to their ability to improve glycemic control and address cardiorenal comorbidities has caused Januvia’s market share to decrease as well.

*9MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, China, and India.

**5EU: France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK