Indonesia Power Market Outlook to 2030, Update 2018 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape

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Published: December 30, 2018 Report Code: GDPE2117ICR-ST

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This report elaborates Indonesia's power market structure and provides historical and forecast numbers for capacity, generation, and consumption up to 2030. Detailed analysis of the Indonesian power market’s regulatory structure, import and export trends, competitive landscape, and power projects at various stages of the supply chain is provided. The report also gives a snapshot of the power sector in Indonesia on broad parameters of macroeconomics, supply security, generation infrastructure, transmission infrastructure, degree of competition, regulatory scenario, and future potential. An analysis of the deals market scenario in the country’s power sector is also included in the report.

Scope

Snapshot of the country’s power sector across parameters – macro economics, supply security, generation infrastructure, transmission infrastructure, degree of competition, regulatory scenario and future potential of the power sector.

Statistics for installed capacity, power generation and consumption from 2000 to 2017, forecast for the next 13 years to 2030

Break-up by technology, including thermal, hydro, renewable and nuclear

Data on leading current and upcoming projects

Information on grid interconnectivity, transmission and distribution infrastructure and power exports and imports

Policy and regulatory framework governing the market

Detailed analysis of top market participant, including market share analysis and SWOT analysis.

Key Highlights

–

Reasons to Buy

Identify opportunities and plan strategies by having a strong understanding of the investment opportunities in the country’s power sector

Identification of key factors driving investment opportunities in the country’s power sector

Facilitate decision-making based on strong historic and forecast data

Develop strategies based on the latest regulatory events

Position yourself to gain the maximum advantage of the industry’s growth potential

Identify key partners and business development avenues

Identify key strengths and weaknesses of important market participants

Respond to your competitors’ business structure, strategy and prospects.

PT PLN (Persero);
PT Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk;
PT Adaro Energy Tbk

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 1

1.1 List of Tables 4

1.2 List of Figures 5

2 Executive Summary 6

2.1 Indonesia, Power Sector Outlook 6

3 Introduction 9

3.1 GlobalData Report Guidance 10

4 Indonesia, Power Market, Snapshot 11

4.1 Macroeconomic Factors 11

4.2 Supply Security 13

4.3 Opportunities 14

4.4 Challenges 15

5 Indonesia, Power Market, Market Analysis 16

5.1 Indonesia, Power Market, Market Structure 16

5.2 Indonesia, Power Market, Key Market Players 16

5.3 Indonesia, Power Market, Financial Deals 16

5.3.1 Deal Value and Volume Analysis, 2008–October 2018 16

5.3.2 Deals by Type, 2017 18

5.4 Indonesia, Power Market, Demand Structure 18

5.4.1 Power Consumption by Sector, 2017 20

6 Indonesia, Power Market, Regulatory Scenario 22

6.1 Indonesia, Power Market, Regulatory Framework 22

6.2 Indonesia, Power Market, Renewable Energy Development 22

6.2.1 Green Energy Policy 22

6.2.2 Electricity Purchase from Small- and Medium-Scale Renewable Energy 22

6.2.3 Ceiling Price for Geothermal 23

6.2.4 New Geothermal Law 24

6.2.5 Geothermal Fund 24

6.2.6 Power Purchase from Solar PV Plants 25

6.2.7 Feed-in Tariffs for Biomass 25

6.3 New Electricity Sector Regulations in 2017 25

6.3.1 Ministerial Decree number 10/2017 (MEMR 10/2017) 25

6.3.2 Ministerial Decree number 11/2017 (MEMR 11/2017) 26

6.3.3 Ministerial Decree number 12/2017 (MEMR 12/2017) 26

6.3.4 Ministerial Decree number 50/2017 (MEMR 50/2017) 26

6.3.5 Policy to Increase the Share of Renewable Power Generation 27

6.4 New Electricity Procurement Business Plan (RUPTL), 2018–2027 27

6.5 Revocation of 32 regulations in the Energy and Minerals Sector in 2018 28

6.6 Regulation Number 35 of 2018 30

6.7 Regulation Number 37 of 2018 31

7 Indonesia Power Market, Capacity and Generation Overview 32

7.1 Indonesia, Power Market, Cumulative Installed Capacity, 2000–2030 32

7.1.1 Installed Capacity by Fuel Type, 2017 32

7.2 Cumulative Installed Capacity and Annual Generation, 2000–2030 33

7.2.1 Cumulative Installed Thermal Power Capacity and Annual Thermal Power Generation, 2000–2030 35

7.2.2 Cumulative Installed Hydropower Capacity and Annual Hydropower Generation, 2000–2030 38

7.2.3 Cumulative Installed Non-hydro Renewable Power Capacity and Annual Non-hydro Renewable Power Generation, 2000–2030 41

8 Indonesia, Power Market, Transmission and Distribution Overview 44

8.1 Indonesia, Power Market, Transmission Network Overview 44

8.2 Indonesia, Power Market, Distribution Network Overview 44

8.3 Indonesia, Power Market, Grid Interconnection 45

8.3.1 Power Import and Export Trends, 2000–2017 46

9 Indonesia, Power Market, Competitive Landscape: Snapshot of Leading Power Generating Companies 47

9.1 Key Company in the Indonesia Power Market: PT PLN (Persero) 47

9.1.1 Company Overview 47

9.1.2 Business Description 47

9.1.3 SWOT Overview 48

9.2 Key Company in the Indonesia Power Market: PT Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk 50

9.2.1 Company Overview 50

9.2.2 Business Description 50

9.2.3 SWOT Overview 50

9.3 Key Company in the Indonesia Power Market: PT Adaro Energy Tbk 53

9.3.1 Company Overview 53

9.3.2 Business Description 53

9.3.3 SWOT Overview 53

10 Appendix 56

10.1 Market Definitions 56

10.1.1 Power 56

10.1.2 Installed Capacity 56

10.1.3 Electricity Generation 56

10.1.4 Electricity Consumption 56

10.1.5 Thermal Power Plant 56

10.1.6 Hydropower Plant 56

10.1.7 Nuclear Power 56

10.1.8 Renewable Energy Resources 56

10.2 Abbreviations 57

10.3 Bibliography 57

10.4 Methodology 58

10.5 Coverage 58

10.5.1 Secondary Research 58

10.5.2 Primary Research 58

10.5.3 Modeling and Forecasting 59

10.6 Contact Us 59

10.7 Disclaimer 59

Table

1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: Power Market, Indonesia, Gross Domestic Product (IDR and $bn), Population (m), and Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2023 13

Table 2: Power Market, Indonesia, Deal Value ($bn) and Number of Deals, 2008–October 2018 17

Table 3: Power Market, Indonesia, Deals by Type (%), 2017 18

Table 4: Power Market, Indonesia, Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2030 20

Table 5: Power Market, Indonesia, Power Consumption by Sector (%), 2017 21

Table 6: Power Market, Indonesia, Ceiling Tariffs (IDR/kWh and $/kWh), 2015–2025 23

Table 7: Power Market, Indonesia, Ceiling Tariffs ($/kWh), 2015–2025 23

Table 8: Power Market, Indonesia, Feed-in Tariffs for Biomass ($/kWh), 2017 25

Table 9: Power Market, Indonesia, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel Type (%), 2017 32

Table 10: Power Market, Indonesia, Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW) and Annual Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2030 34

Table 11: Power Market, Indonesia, Leading Thermal Power Plants (MW), 2018 35

Table 12: Power Market, Indonesia, Cumulative Installed Thermal Power Capacity (GW) and Annual Thermal Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2030 37

Table 13: Power Market, Indonesia, Leading Hydropower Plants (MW), 2018 38

Table 14: Power Market, Indonesia, Cumulative Installed Hydropower Capacity (GW) and Annual Hydropower Generation (TWh), 2000–2030 40

Table 15: Power Market, Indonesia, Leading Non-hydro Renewable Power Plants (MW), 2018 41

Table 16: Power Market, Indonesia, Cumulative Installed Non-hydro Renewable Power Capacity (GW) and Annual Non-hydro Renewable Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2030 43

Table 17: Power Market, Indonesia, Transmission Line Length (Ckm) by Voltage Levels, 2007–2025 44

Table 18: Power Market, Indonesia, Distribution Line Length (Ckm), 2007–2025 45

Table 19: Power Market, Indonesia, PT PLN (Persero), SWOT Profile, 2018 48

Table 20: Power Market, Indonesia, PT Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk, SWOT Profile, 2018 51

Table 21: Power Market, Indonesia, PT Adaro Energy Tbk, SWOT Profile, 2018 54

Table 22: Abbreviations 57

Figures

1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1: Power Market, Indonesia, Gross Domestic Product ($bn) and Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2017 6

Figure 2: Power Market, Indonesia, Annual Power Consumption and Generation (TWh), 2000–2017 7

Figure 3: Power Market, Indonesia, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel Type (%), 2017 8

Figure 4: Power Market, Indonesia, Gross Domestic Product ($bn), Population (m), and Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2023 12

Figure 5: Power Market, Indonesia, Deal Value ($bn) and Number of Deals, 2008–October 2018 17

Figure 6: Power Market, Indonesia, Deals by Type (%), 2017 18

Figure 7: Power Market, Indonesia, Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2030 19

Figure 8: Power Market, Indonesia, Power Consumption by Sector (%), 2017 21

Figure 9: Power Market, Indonesia, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel Type (%), 2017 32

Figure 10: Power Market, Indonesia, Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW) and Annual Generation (TWh), 2000–2030 33

Figure 11: Power Market, Indonesia, Cumulative Installed Thermal Power Capacity (GW) and Annual Thermal Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2030 36

Figure 12: Power Market, Indonesia, Cumulative Installed Hydropower Capacity (GW) and Annual Hydropower Generation (TWh), 2000–2030 39

Figure 13: Power Market, Indonesia, Cumulative Installed Non-hydro Renewable Power Capacity (GW) and Annual Non-hydro Renewable Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2030 42

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