Kenya Power Market Outlook to 2030, Update 2018 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape

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Published: August 31, 2018 Report Code: GDPE2087ICR-ST

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This report elaborates Kenya's power market structure and provides historical and forecast numbers for capacity, generation, and consumption up to 2030. Detailed analysis of the Kenyan power market’s regulatory structure, import and export trends, competitive landscape, and power projects at various stages of the supply chain is provided. The report also gives a snapshot of the power sector in Kenya on broad parameters of macroeconomics, supply security, generation infrastructure, transmission infrastructure, degree of competition, regulatory scenario, and future potential. An analysis of the deals market scenario in the country’s power sector is also included in the report.

Scope

Snapshot of the country’s power sector across parameters – macro economics, supply security, generation infrastructure, transmission infrastructure, degree of competition, regulatory scenario and future potential of the power sector.

Statistics for installed capacity, power generation and consumption from 2000 to 2017, forecast for the next 13 years to 2030

Break-up by technology, including thermal, hydro, renewable and nuclear

Data on leading current and upcoming projects

Information on grid interconnectivity, transmission and distribution infrastructure and power exports and imports

Policy and regulatory framework governing the market

Detailed analysis of top market participant, including market share analysis and SWOT analysis.

Key Highlights

–

Reasons to Buy

Identify opportunities and plan strategies by having a strong understanding of the investment opportunities in the country’s power sector

Identification of key factors driving investment opportunities in the country’s power sector

Facilitate decision-making based on strong historic and forecast data

Develop strategies based on the latest regulatory events

Position yourself to gain the maximum advantage of the industry’s growth potential

Identify key partners and business development avenues

Identify key strengths and weaknesses of important market participants

Respond to your competitors’ business structure, strategy and prospects.

Kenya Electricity Generating Co Ltd;
Kenya Power and Lighting Co Ltd

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 1

1.1 List of Tables 4

1.2 List of Figures 5

2 Executive Summary 6

2.1 Kenya Power Sector Outlook 6

3 Introduction 9

3.1 GlobalData Report Guidance 11

4 Kenya, Power Market, Snapshot 12

4.1 Macroeconomic Factors 12

4.2 Supply Security 14

4.3 Opportunities 14

4.4 Challenges 15

5 Kenya, Power Market, Market Analysis 16

5.1 Kenya, Power Market, Market Structure 16

5.2 Kenya, Power Market, Key Market Players 16

5.3 Kenya, Power Market, Financial Deals 17

5.3.1 Deal Value and Volume Analysis, 2008–June 2018 17

5.3.2 Deals by Type, 2018 18

5.4 Kenya, Power Market, Demand Structure 18

5.4.1 Power Consumption by Sector, 2017 20

6 Kenya, Power Market, Regulatory Scenario 22

6.1 Kenya, Power Market, Regulatory Framework 22

6.1.1 The Energy Act of 2006 22

6.1.2 Least Cost Power Development Plan 22

6.1.3 New Energy Policy 22

6.2 Kenya, Power Market, Renewable Energy Policy 23

6.2.1 Tax Incentives 23

6.2.2 Feed–in Tariff (FiT) 23

6.2.3 Move to Swap FiTs for Competitive Auctions 25

6.2.4 Solar Water Heating Regulation 25

7 Kenya Power Market, Capacity and Generation Overview 26

7.1 Kenya, Power Market, Cumulative Installed Capacity, 2000–2030 26

7.1.1 Installed Capacity by Fuel Type, 2017 26

7.2 Cumulative Installed Capacity and Annual Generation, 2000–2030 27

7.2.1 Cumulative Installed Thermal Power Capacity and Annual Thermal Power Generation, 2000–2030 30

7.2.2 Cumulative Installed Hydropower Capacity and Annual Hydropower Generation, 2000–2030 33

7.2.3 Cumulative Installed Non-hydro Renewable Power Capacity and Annual Non-hydro Renewable Power Generation, 2000–2030 36

8 Kenya, Power Market, Transmission and Distribution Overview 39

8.1 Kenya, Power Market, Transmission Network Overview 39

8.2 Kenya, Power Market, Distribution Network Overview 40

8.3 Kenya, Power Market, Grid Interconnection 40

8.3.1 Kenya and the East Africa Power Pool 41

8.3.2 Kenya, Power Import and Export trends, 2000–2017 41

8.4 Kenya, Power Market, Electricity Trading 43

9 Kenya, Power Market, Competitive Landscape: Snapshot of Leading Power Generating Companies 44

9.1 Key Company in Kenya Power Market: Kenya Electricity Generating Co Ltd 44

9.1.1 Company Overview 44

9.1.2 Business Description 44

9.1.3 SWOT Overview 44

9.2 Key Company in Kenya Power Market: Kenya Power and Lighting Co Ltd 46

9.2.1 Company Overview 46

9.2.2 Business Description 47

9.2.3 SWOT Overview 47

10 Appendix 50

10.1 Market Definitions 50

10.1.1 Power 50

10.1.2 Installed Capacity 50

10.1.3 Electricity Generation 50

10.1.4 Electricity Consumption 50

10.1.5 Thermal Power Plant 50

10.1.6 Hydropower Plant 50

10.1.7 Nuclear Power 50

10.1.8 Renewable Energy Resources 50

10.2 Abbreviations 51

10.3 Bibliography 51

10.4 Methodology 51

10.5 Coverage 51

10.5.1 Secondary Research 52

10.5.2 Primary Research 52

10.5.3 Modeling and Forecasting 53

10.6 Contact Us 53

10.7 Disclaimer 53

Table

1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: Power Market, Kenya, Gross Domestic Product (KES and $bn), Population (m), and Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2023 13

Table 2: Power Market, Kenya, Market Share of Leading Power Generation Companies (%), 2017 17

Table 3: Power Market, Kenya, Deal Value ($bn) and Number of Deals, 2008–June 2018 17

Table 4: Power Market, Kenya, Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2030 19

Table 5: Power Market, Kenya, Power Consumption by Sector (%), 2017 21

Table 6: Power Market, Kenya, Feed–in Tariff for Small Renewable Projects with Installed Capacity up to 10 MW ($/kWh) 24

Table 7: Power Market, Kenya, Feed–in Tariff for Renewable Projects with Installed Capacity above 10 MW ($/kWh) 24

Table 8: Power Market, Kenya, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel Type (%), 2017 26

Table 9: Power Market, Kenya, Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW) and Annual Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2030 29

Table 10: Power Market, Kenya, Leading Thermal Power Plants (MW), 2018 30

Table 11: Power Market, Kenya, Cumulative Installed Thermal Power Capacity (GW) and Annual Thermal Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2030 32

Table 12: Power Market, Kenya, Leading Hydropower Plants (MW), 2018 33

Table 13: Power Market, Kenya, Cumulative Installed Hydropower Capacity (GW) and Annual Hydropower Generation (TWh), 2000–2030 35

Table 14: Power Market, Kenya, Leading Non-hydro Renewable Power Plants (MW), 2018 36

Table 15: Power Market, Kenya, Cumulative Installed Non-hydro Renewable Power Capacity (MW and GW) and Annual Non-hydro Renewable Power Generation (GWh and TWh), 2000–2030 38

Table 16: Power Market, Kenya, Transmission Line Length (Ckm), 2007–2025 39

Table 17: Power Market, Kenya, Distribution Line Length (Ckm), 2007–2025 40

Table 18: Power Market, Kenya, Annual Power Imports and Exports (TWh), 2000–2017 42

Table 19: Power Market, Kenya, Kenya Electricity Generating Co Ltd, SWOT Profile, 2018 45

Table 20: Power Market, Kenya, Kenya Power and Lighting Co Ltd, SWOT Profile, 2018 47

Table 21: Abbreviations 51

Figures

1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1: Power Market, Kenya, Gross Domestic Product ($bn) and Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2017 6

Figure 2: Power Market, Kenya, Annual Power Consumption and Generation (TWh), 2000–2017 7

Figure 3: Power Market, Kenya, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel Type (%), 2017 8

Figure 4: Power Market, Kenya, Gross Domestic Product ($bn), Population (m), and Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2023 13

Figure 5: Power Market, Kenya, Market Share of Leading Power Generation Companies (%), 2017 16

Figure 6: Power Market, Kenya, Deal Value ($bn) and Number of Deals, 2008–June 2018 17

Figure 7: Power Market, Kenya, Annual Power Consumption (TWh), 2000–2030 19

Figure 8: Power Market, Kenya, Power Consumption by Sector (%), 2017 20

Figure 9: Power Market, Kenya, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel Type (%), 2017 26

Figure 10: Power Market, Kenya, Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW) and Annual Generation (TWh), 2000–2030 28

Figure 11: Power Market, Kenya, Cumulative Installed Thermal Power Capacity (GW) and Annual Thermal Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2030 31

Figure 12: Power Market, Kenya, Cumulative Installed Hydropower Capacity (GW) and Annual Hydropower Generation (TWh), 2000–2030 34

Figure 13: Power Market, Kenya, Cumulative Installed Non-hydro Renewable Power Capacity (GW) and Annual Non-hydro Renewable Power Generation (TWh), 2000–2030 37

Figure 14: Power Market, Kenya, Annual Power Imports and Exports (TWh), 2000–2017 42

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