Sustainable Aviation Fuel – The Way Forward for Aviation Industry

Sustainable Aviation Fuel Report Overview

There are currently 9 pathways for producing sustainable aviation fuel (SAFs), which are certified by the IATA. However, hydrotreatment remains the dominant pathway for the bulk of current SAF production. As SAF production increases, alternative pathways will become more prominent such as alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) and power-to-liquid (PtL) technologies.

To spur emission reductions from the sector, organizations such as the ICAO and the ITAO have set a target of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. Sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) have been identified as a key technology for achieving emission reductions.

The sustainable aviation fuel research report provides an assessment of the global commercial aviation sector’s decarbonization challenge. The report also covers the potential role of sustainable aviation fuel (SAFs) in achieving emission reduction and analyzes its demand and supply curve. Furthermore, data on sector challenges, technological shifts, and key players operating in the market will help in understanding how the oil and gas sector is employing SAF technologies in the upcoming capacity.

Buy Full Report for More Insights on the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market

Download a Free Report Sample

Sustainable Aviation Fuel - Briefing

Currently, 4 active projects are producing around 440 ktpa of synthetic fuel. This low production is attributed to the reliance on emerging technologies and the challenges of achieving economically viable production at a commercial scale. In addition, low production rates themselves are suppressing the incentive to switch from conventional fuels as synthetic fuels remain uncompetitive on a cost front. However, factors such as the rise in the application of power-to-liquid technology is expected to increase the SAF supply in the coming years.

Synthetic Fuel Production and Project Count, 2018 – 2030

Buy Full Report for More Insights on the Synthetic Fuel Production and Project Count

Download a Free Report Sample

Sustainable Aviation Fuel - Supply and Demand Outlook

The global demand for SAF is expected to grow at a CAGR of more than 18% between 2023 and 2050. Thus, the SAF production will rise rapidly owing to the increase in demand from the aviation industry and policy incentives. Factors such as the substantial increase in the number of SAF production sites will support the growth and production. For instance, the total SAF production site was 8 in 2022 and is presumed to increase significantly by the end of the decade.

The geographical spread of SAF supply is quite uneven with supplies concentrated mainly in Asian countries such as China and Singapore. However, even though neither the US nor Canada have a blending mandate, North America will become the dominant market for SAF supply by 2030. The region will account for more than 10 Mt of annual SAF production.

SAF Demand by Country, 2020-2050

Buy the Full Report for More Insights on the SAF Supply and Demand Outlook

Download a Free Report Sample

Sustainable Aviation Fuel - Projects

The major projects in the SAF market are Decatur Renewable, Rotterdam Renewable, Singapore Renewable, Teesside Renewable, and Maoming Renewable among others. Decatur Renewable will have the highest capacity by 2030, followed by Rotterdam Renewable​. Decatur Renewable is owned by Gevo Inc. in the US and will be active by 2026.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Analysis by Projects, 2030 (%)

Buy the Full Report for More Insights on the Projects in the SAF Market

Download a Free Report Sample

Sustainable Aviation Fuel - Industry Players

A few of the major players in the SAF industry are China Petrochemical Corp, Neste Corp, EcoCeres Inc, Hong Kong and China Gas Co Ltd., and Air BP Ltd. Among others. China Petrochemical Corp and Neste Corp stood first in terms of capacity in 2022. The former player dominated the market owing to its Zhenai Renewable refinery.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Analysis by Players, 2022 (%)

Buy the Full Report for More Insights on Players in the SAF Market

Download a Free Report Sample

Scope

The report provides:

• The carbon footprint of the aviation sector.
• Emission reduction potential of SAFs.
• ASTM-approved SAF production pathways.
• Emerging SAF production pathways.
• SAF production outlook and key supply and demand markets.
• SAF production capacity by country.
• Oil and gas sector activity within SAFs.

Key Highlights

• Aviation represents the largest contributor to growth in per capita emissions and with passenger numbers expected to double, reaching 8 billion by 2050, the sector now needs to urgently address its environmental impact.

• The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has also announced its aim of reaching net-zero by 2050. The IATA represents over 300 members and constitutes an estimated 83% of air traffic. It has said that it expects 65% of emission reduction to be met through the adoption of sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs).

• Demand for feedstocks may outpace supply as SAF production scales, particularly for waste oils where volumes are low and competition with renewable diesel producers could take place.

• In 2050, CO2 will be the largest feedstock as power to liquid technologies that use captured carbon dioxide reach maturity.

• According to GlobalData’s current database of active and upcoming projects, synthetic fuel production could reach up to 7,200 ktpa by 2030 as the number of projects reaches 68.

• The SAF Certificate Registry was launched at COP28, allowing companies to buy credible SAF certificates that represent conventional fuel being displaced.

• Despite neither the US or Canada having a blending mandate, North America will become the dominant market for SAF supply by 2030, where it will account for 10.8 Mt of annual SAF production. This equates to 39% of global supply.

• The key oil and gas players within the SAF market will experience a shake up. While China Petrochemical Corp currently stands joint first in terms of current capacity due to its Zhenai Renewable refinery, it will lose this market positioning in 2030 to new market entrants such as Oriental Energy.

Reasons to Buy

The report will help to:

• Understand the key trends and challenges within the SAFs market.
• Identify the key countries and players for SAF production capacity.
• Develop market insight of current, in development, and announced capacity and latest trends of the sector.
• Understand how the oil and gas sector is engaging with this technology through upcoming capacity as well as alternative datasets such as deals, hiring, and company filing trends.