Explore the latest Global macroeconomic trends and forecasts to inform business strategy and pinpoint opportunities and risks

Rising Economic Concerns Around the World: US & Europe

  • A strong labor market has so far been able to prevent a recession despite a decline in GDP in two consecutive quarters
  • The euro area’s inflation is still too high
  • As the likelihood of a recession increases, pressure will increase on the European Central Bank to raise rates once again in September 2022

The carefully regarded monthly jobs report in the US and the inflation indicators in Europe will be released in the first week of September 2022 at a crucial time for markets and central banks as global economic concerns rise. China’s manufacturing sector will also be examined, and the euro is on the verge of a steep fall below the crucial $1 level. 

The monthly jobs data in the US will be made public on September 2, 2022. The report will test the world’s largest economy and examine whether the Federal Reserve can achieve a “soft landing” while raising interest rates to fight inflation that reached a four-decade high. A strong labor market has been able to dispel the fear of a recession even though the GDP of the US contracted for two consecutive quarters.

According to what the flash August Consumer Price Index on August 31, 2022, is likely to reveal, inflation in the euro area is still uncomfortably high. As the likelihood of a recession increases, pressure will increase on the European Central Bank to raise rates once again in September 2022. Inflation could soon reach double digits as opposed to peaking shortly as anticipated a few weeks ago. The inflation was significantly above the ECB’s 2% target in July 2022, at an annual pace of 8.9%.

Russia planned further restrictions on gas imports by Europe, which explains the most recent concerns about the increasing price of gas that could exacerbate inflation.

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