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Technology Foresights: Seeing What’s Next In Cybersecurity

  • The need for security, along with the idea that innovation is critical to counter the evolving threats, will propel cybersecurity spending despite the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic
  • Companies globally are expected to spend $115 billion on security in 2020, according to GlobalData estimates

  • The global security industry will be worth $238 billion by 2030, and will have grown at a CAGR of 6.4% during 2019–2030

 

Innovation-led technologies of the future identified by GlobalData (link) like Artificial Intelligence, Blockchain and 5G have the power to transform and revolutionise whole sectors and industries,  but unfortunately they also create newer and sophisticated cybersecurity risks.

However, attempts to combat these emergent risks are also being developed, and we identify key emerging technology innovations in cybersecurity which will usher in advanced solutions to increase resilience against new-age cybersecurity risks.

Delving deep into GlobalData’s patents datasets and employing cutting edge AI and ML approaches, we analyse large universe of patent documents to identify key emerging patents and innovation filed within cybersecurity.

Chart below depicts the evolution of emerging technology innovations in cybersecurity through time and their current pace of growth. We highlight currently emerging technologies in cybersecurity (see box in the chart) which will lead the next wave of innovation in this space, like Quantum Cryptography, Chaotic Signals, Photonic Quantum Communications, Blind Signatures (zero knowledge proofs), Vehicle anti-theft systems, to name a few.

 

Next, we also quantitatively assess how ‘Radical’ (high technical depth and wide applicability) or ‘Incremental’ (moderate technical depth and applicability) the technology innovation is going to be. This uses technologies application diversity as measured by the scope of applications areas covered in the patents and technical depth as measured by the extent to which the patent draw upon on certain technology field.

We provide a quick flavour of what these technologies mean and what cyber-security threats they defend against

  1. Cryptographic Hash Functions (CHF) The rise in blockchain and distributed computing technologies has resulted in emergence of CHFs. Along with enabling efficient data store, CHF algorithms provide improved security against attacks in public and private blockchains. A radical innovation with widespread impact
  2. Quantum Cryptography (QC) is innovation in Cybersecurity borne out of application of quantum physics to public key distribution algorithms. QC algorithms are highly effective against cybersecurity threats as the data is encoded in quantum states.
  3. Vehicle Anti-theft Systems Increasing penetration of connected cars and accelerated progress towards a future with fully autonomous cars has meant that cars are transforming from a means of transport into full-fledged internet-enabled transportation devices, susceptible to cybersecurity risks. Recent UN regulations are requiring all connected cars to include cybersecurity so that industry stake holders proactively build solutions against possible threats from cybercriminals, hacktivists, terrorist and nation states.

Finally, we also list front-runners in each emerging tech innovation areas to understand the leading players in the area, as well as the impact they will have – whether ‘Radical’, ‘Incremental’ or somewhere in-between. Notably, several players in the automobile value chain, apart from the car manufacturers have also been innovating in this area.

We highlight some interesting areas companies are working on in this space.

  • Ford, for instance, is developing an anti-theft system that receives GPS coordinates and compares them against known device coordinates. The device and vehicle connect when the device coordinates are within a pre-determined proximity - this prevents access to unauthorized drivers as they do not possess the required mobile device.
  • Valeo Comfort & Driving Assistance in building low-energy beacon-based authentication of vehicle and vehicle users to prevent thefts.
  • Veridium Ltd, a leader in authentication experience offering, has recently filed several patents in automotive biometrics. Innovations created in this area by Veridium include the use of user behavior and preferences by the in-built system of vehicles in authenticating the driver and such.
  • IBM, meanwhile, has patented a cloud-based cognitive radio frequency intrusion detection audit and reporting system using cognitive deep learning systems to deter unauthorized intrusions.
  • Volkswagen AG has developed an intelligent electronic key with cellular capability and uses mobile communications to prevent unauthorized entry by authenticating vehicle access from a central server via a mobile radio network.
  • Cellport has developed patent portfolios in the areas of vehicle connectivity and more recently in the areas of vehicle protection against cyberattacks and blockchain-based vehicle fleet management systems.

 

Adarsh Jain, CFA

Director, Financial Markets



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