Explore India's latest macroeconomic trends and forecasts to inform business strategy and pinpoint opportunities and risks

India Set to Overtake China as World’s Most Populous Country in 2023

  • India is set to overtake China as the world's most populous country in 2023, four years earlier than a previous estimate by the United Nations
  • The UN expects the global population to grow to 8.5 billion by 2030
  • China could report an absolute decline in its population as early as 2023, the report said

India has a population of 1.412 billion in 2022 in comparison to 1.426 billion in China, according to a recent report by the United Nations. The UN report released on July 11, 2022, states that India is expected to overtake China as the world's most populous country in 2023. The report also estimates that the global population will reach eight billion by mid-November 2022.

India’s Booming Population

Owing to the rapid growth in population, India is set to surpass China as the world's most populous country. The population of India is expected to increase by 0.67% in 2022, according to GlobalData. This means that for any given level of per capita income, people's productivity will need to increase since the larger a country's population, the more people it must maintain. India is likely to benefit from a demographic dividend in the years ahead since it has a higher percentage of people of working age than does China.

Global Population

The global population is expected to reach 10.4 billion during the 2080s and remain static until 2100, growing at its slowest rate since World War II. In the next 30 years, just eight countries—the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Tanzania—will account for more than half of the growth of the global population. The growth primarily could be due to advancements in science and medicine, which resulted in more children, adults living into old age. Even in countries where the population is growing, fertility rates are declining. That is because many individuals continue to have fewer children than the older generations and their parents did.

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