The conflict between Russia and Ukraine would cause a 33.4% decline in the gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in 2022, the National Bank of Ukraine said. According to the initial projection of the bank, the nominal GDP of Ukraine could decline from $149.3 billion in 2021 to $124.1 billion in 2022.
The Fall and Rise of Ukraine’s GDP
After declining 15.1% and 39.3% in the first and second quarters of 2022, respectively, the GDP of Ukraine is expected to decrease 37.5% YoY in the third quarter of 2022, according to the National Bank of Ukraine.
The bank stated that the inflation in Ukraine will increase from 10% in the previous year to 31% by the end of 2022. It also stated that the Ukrainian economy could grow 15.5% in 2023 based on the military events in the Russia-Ukraine conflict that started on February 24, 2022.
The First Vice Prime Minister and spokesperson, Yulia Svyrydenko, said that government specialists were gathering macroeconomic data ahead of discussions on a new mortgage package with the IMF that will begin in September 2022.
Of note, according to GlobalData, Ukraine’s real GDP is expected to rise in 2023 to $91 billion from the initial value of $132 billion in the year 2018.
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