Impact of Global Geopolitical Tension
Global geopolitical tension is increasing the risks involved with investment and trade, as well as causing fluctuations in consumer demand. A prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine will continue to impact global growth in terms of production, trade, and employment. Major economies will continue to adopt tighter monetary policies to tame inflationary pressures.
The GCC nations are forecast to grow at their fastest pace in years on higher hydrocarbon prices. Among the six GCC nations, Kuwait is projected to be the fastest growing with real GDP forecast at 8.2% in 2022, followed by Saudi Arabia (7.6%), Oman (5.7%), UAE (5.5%), Qatar (4.4%), and Bahrain (3.3%).
In Asia, India and China are forecast to grow by 6.9% and 3.1%, respectively, in 2022. Other countries including Vietnam, Bangladesh, Malaysia and the Philippines are projected to register above 6% growth in 2022.
In East Europe, Ukraine and Russia are forecast to contract by 34.2% and 4.7% respectively in 2022, and the outlook remains highly uncertain. In West Europe, Austria, the UK, Ireland, Spain, Greece, and Portugal, are forecast to grow by 3% and above in 2022, which is however a downward revision from earlier projections.
In North America, real GDP in the US and Canada are projected to grow by 1.6% and 3.3% in 2022, which is slower than the 5.7% and 4.6% growth recorded in the previous year, according to GlobalData estimates.
GDP Growth
Meanwhile, GlobalData revised its real GDP growth forecast downward for most regions. Real GDP growth for Asia-Pacific has been revised downward by 1.4 percentage points (pp), East Europe by 3.6pp, Western Europe by 1pp and North America by 2.1pp in October 2022 compared to its February 2022 projections.
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