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Ukraine and Russia Conflict Scenario Analysis

Russia will continue military operations until Ukraine becomes a neutral state, recognize the two regions of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states, and recognize Crimea as Russian territory
The US and its allies will intensify efforts to prevent Russia from attaining its declared goals
Russia will use wider territorial gains in southern Ukraine beyond the Donbas as bargaining chips, while seeking to preserve its core capabilities by redirecting oil and other commodity exports from lost western markets to Asia

Russia’s Demands

Russia’s three stated goals take the form of demands that Ukraine should:

Become a neutral state (as opposed to a US/NATO military ally)
Recognize the two regions of Donetsk and Luhansk (the Donbas) in south-eastern Ukraine as independent states
Recognize Crimea as Russian territory

Russia will continue military operations until it attains these three goals unless:

Incapacitated by the effects of sanctions that will cripple its war-financing and resupply efforts, and/or bringing about socio-economic breakdown, which could force a change in Russian policies/leadership
Outmatched in the field by superior Ukrainian manpower and fighting spirit plus western-supplied weapons (Russia is unlikely to match Ukraine’s wartime mobilization of all military age individuals unless its territory is attacked, including Crimea—a scenario that would also entail serious escalation of threats, including WMDs)

Conflict Scenario Analysis

Negotiations about Ukrainian neutrality during the first month of war (March) were all along vulnerable to unresolvable territorial disputes reflected in Russia’s stated war aims
Those negotiations collapsed in early April amid revelations of Russian atrocities around Kyiv after the Russian retreat from that region. The Russian military effort has since focused on gaining control of the entire territory of the two regions of south-eastern Ukraine known as the Donbas (in the case of the Luhansk region, this mission was accomplished on July 3) and consolidating control of the land corridor to Crimea
In this territorial struggle, the stakes are huge for all belligerents—i.e., Russia on the one side and, on the other, Ukraine and its western government supporters. The war will continue until one or the other side loses the will and/or the ability to fight on
The factors that could ultimately undermine either side’s war effort may already be visible but remain unlikely to tip the scales in short order: for the economic damage to Russia from sanctions mounts only gradually, while Ukrainian resilience—stemming from their national survival being at stake—will not be snapped by specific military reverses
A shift in the US position points to an eventual negotiated settlement. After the Russian retreat from Kyiv, senior Biden administration officials signaled the goal of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia. More recently, Washington speaks instead of arming Ukrainian counter-attacks so that Ukraine will have greater leverage in future peace negotiations. But for as long as Ukraine remains capable of mounting any counter-attacks at all, the US will stick to this policy rather than pressing for talks
US policy is also designed to send a signal to China about the effectiveness of the US response to ‘rogue’ actions by a nuclear power. This stance was formalized in last month’s annual NATO Summit conclusions, which included adding China to the strategic threats to be addressed by the Alliance The unprecedented sanctions on Russia will accelerate the fracturing of the global economy into competing geopolitical camps
Peace may not mean peace. When a negotiated settlement is reached—and this could take years rather than months—the government of whichever side had come out worse would be severely weakened, hence unable to control irregular/partisan forces which, in a theatre awash with weapons, would easily defy their own authorities and continue the armed struggle

The flowchart below offers a snapshot of the factors that condition the timeframe for a Russia-Ukraine resolution—along with the hazards and blockages that could stop or slow the clock.

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